生态学报2026，Vol.46Issue(3)：1408-1421,14.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202505301348
优化MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下中华穿山甲潜在适生区及保护建议
Optimized MaxEnt modeling of potential Chinese Pangolin(Manis pentadactyla)habitats under climate change:implications for conservation
摘要
Abstract
This study integrates the kuenm R package to optimize MaxEnt model parameters for the systematic prediction of potential suitable habitat patterns of Manis pentadactyla under both current and future climate scenarios.The findings aim to provide a scientific foundation for population recovery and habitat conservation efforts for the Chinese Pangolin.Based on 132 rigorously screened occurrence records and eight key environmental variables,the MaxEnt model was parameterized using kuenm R package.The spatial distributions of suitable habitats under current conditions and projected future scenarios(2041-2060 and 2081-2100)were analyzed in ArcGIS.The primary environmental drivers were identified through variable contribution rates,jackknife tests,and response curves.Shifts in the spatiotemporal patterns of suitable habitats were assessed.(1)The optimized model demonstrated excellent predictive performance,with an omission rate of 0.0303,delta AICc=0,and a mean AUC of 0.965(＞0.9).(2)The most influential environmental variables were annual precipitation(bio12;79.1%contribution),precipitation seasonality(bio15;9.3%),and maximum temperature in January(tmax1;5.6%).(3)The current total area of suitable habitat was approximately 112.45×10 km2,primarily distributed in southern China,comprising highly suitable(39.1×10 km2,34.77%),moderately suitable(28.52×10 km2,25.36%),and low—suitability(44.83×10 km2,39.87%)regions.(4)Under future climate warming condition,the SSP245 scenario projected a substantial expansion in suitable habitat area,reaching 171.59×10 km2 by the 2050s.In contrast,under the SSP585 scenario for the 2090s,the highly suitable habitat area was sharply reduced by 52.05%.(5)The migration trajectories of habitat centroids exhibited distinct spatiotemporal differentiation:under SSP126,the centroid initially shifted northwest before moving southeast;under SSP245,it moved northward and then southwest;under SSP585,it shifted northeast and then markedly westward.The results of this study offer spatially explicit recommendations to inform conservation planning for the Chinese Pangolin and contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of species protection measures.关键词
中华穿山甲/优化MaxEnt模型/环境因子/适生区预测/气候变化/迁移路线Key words
Manis pentadactyla/Optimized MaxEnt model/environmental factors/prediction of suitable areas/climate change/migration route引用本文复制引用
陈春晖,黄丽,汪安童,张梓扬,展超雨,罗萧,黄琰彬,刘宝..优化MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下中华穿山甲潜在适生区及保护建议[J].生态学报,2026,46(3):1408-1421,14.基金项目
福建君子峰国家级自然保护区重点保护动物监测项目(KH230107A) （KH230107A）
2025年中央财政国家重点保护野生动植物专项——福建中华穿山甲种群资源监测与保护(KH250430A) （KH250430A）
