眼科新进展2026，Vol.46Issue(2)：134-139,6.DOI:10.13389/j.cnki.rao.2026.0023
1990-2021年中国与不同社会人口指数地区白内障疾病负担的分析及预测
Analysis and prediction of the cataract disease burden in China and across regions with different socio-demographic indexes from 1990 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the variation trends in cataract disease burden and the possible risk factors of cata-ract in China and across regions with different socio-demographic indexes(SDI)from 1990 to 2021,and to project the prev-alence rate and the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rate for cataract patients in China from 2022 to 2050,based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021).Methods The prevalence rates,numbers of patients,DALYs,and risk factors related to cataract in China and 5 SDI regions from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021.An age-period-cohort model was employed to analyze the variation trends in age-standardized prevalence rates and DALYs among cataract patients.The autoregressive integrated moving average model was subsequently applied to project the standardized preva-lence and DALY rates for cataract patients in China from 2022 to 2050.Results From 1990 to 2021,the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)of the age-standardized prevalence of cataract in China was 0.649％(95％CI:0.392％-0.906％),indicating an increasing prevalence rate.While the DALYs for cataract showed a decreasing trend in China and most SDI regions,female DALYs in high-middle SDI regions demonstrated an upward trend.The cataract disease burden among females was significantly higher than that among males across all regions.The number of female patients was 1.39 times that of male patients,and the DALYs for females were approximately 1.43 times those for males.From 1990 to 2021,among risk factors of cataract in China and different SDI regions,the proportion attributable to air pollution from household solid fuels decreased,whereas factors related to lifestyle,such as high fasting blood glucose and elevated body mass index,became increasingly influential.It was predicted that from 2022 to 2050,the number of cataract patients in China would gen-erally show a relatively stable trend.Regarding the DALY rate and the prevalence of cataract in China,the female DALY rate was projected to increase overall,the male DALY rate was expected to decrease overall,and the prevalence for both genders was estimated to maintain relatively consistent and stable.Conclusion Between 1990 and 2021,the burden of cataract in-creased in China and across different SDI regions,with females bearing a higher burden than males.It is projected that from 2022 to 2050,the number of cataract patients in China may maintain stable overall,with an increasing female DALY rate,and the disease burden is expected to remain high in the future.关键词
白内障/疾病负担/社会人口指数/伤残调整寿命年/患病率/风险因素Key words
cataract/disease burden/socio-demographic index/disability-adjusted life years/prevalence/risk factors分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
彭龄忆,姜旭,魏金枫,夏佳琪..1990-2021年中国与不同社会人口指数地区白内障疾病负担的分析及预测[J].眼科新进展,2026,46(2):134-139,6.基金项目
黑龙江省自然科学基金优秀青年项目(编号:YQ2024H001) （编号:YQ2024H001）
佳木斯大学国家基金培育项目(编号:JMSUGPZR2022-013) （编号:JMSUGPZR2022-013）
黑龙江省大学生创新训练计划项目(编号:S202510222120) （编号:S202510222120）
