中国电力2026，Vol.59Issue(2)：13-23,11.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202512007
2026年及"十五五"全国电力供需形势分析展望
Analysis and outlook on national power supply-demand situation for 2026 and the 15th Five-Year Plan period
摘要
Abstract
The 15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical stage for consolidating the foundation and advancing in an all-round way in the process of China basically realizing socialist modernization.The external environment is intricate and complex,with an increasing number of disturbing factors,and the power supply and demand will still face a series of risks and challenges.Taking into comprehensive consideration the influencing factors such as economic situation,key industries,meteorological factors and primary energy,this paper conducts an analysis and forecast of the national power demand and supply in 2026 and the 15th Five-Year Plan period,makes an assessment of the national power supply and demand situation,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for ensuring the balance between power supply and demand.The research shows that supported by factors such as steady economic growth and accelerated construction of a modern industrial system,the national social electricity consumption will maintain rapid growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan period;driven by the"dual carbon"goals,the proportion of newly installed renewable energy capacity will keep rising,and the power source structure will continue to shift toward cleanliness and low carbonization.The overall power supply and demand situation will be characterized by"loose in the early stage and tight in the later stage".It is necessary to promote the commissioning of guaranteed and supportive power sources,guide renewable energy to play a supporting role in power supply guarantee,strengthen inter-provincial and cross-regional mutual assistance and support,and tap the potential of demand-side regulation,so as to ensure the balance of power supply and demand during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.关键词
电力需求/电力供应/电力供需形势/"十五五"Key words
power demand/power supply/power supply-demand situation/15th Five-Year Plan引用本文复制引用
汲国强,段金辉,吴姗姗,韩新阳,尤培培,张莉莉,张煜..2026年及"十五五"全国电力供需形势分析展望[J].中国电力,2026,59(2):13-23,11.基金项目
科技部重点研发计划资助项目(2024YFF0809204). This work is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2024YFF0809204). （2024YFF0809204）
