中国农业资源与区划2025，Vol.46Issue(12)：243-253,11.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20251221
奶价下跌对牛肉价格下跌的影响
THE IMPACT OF MILK PRICE DECLINES ON BEEF PRICE DROPS:TVAR-DY EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
摘要
Abstract
The recent precipitous decline in beef prices has had a severe impact on China's beef industry.Analyzing the causes of this price drop is crucial for promoting the healthy development of the beef sector.Since 2022,the price of raw milk in China has been on a downward trajectory,coinciding with the decline in beef prices.This study employed an empirical model to investigate whether the decline in milk prices has influenced the fall in beef prices.And using weekly data on beef prices,milk prices,corn prices,soybean meal prices,and the Consumer Price Index(CPI)from the first week of 2008 to the 23rd week of 2024,it utilized the Threshold Vector Autoregression(TVAR)model and Diebold-Yilmaz(DY)spillover index to analyze the transmission path of milk prices to beef prices.The findings were showed as follows.(1)A decline in milk prices significantly affected the decline in beef prices,with the degree of impact depending on the CPI range;(2)When the month-on-month CPI decreased by more than 0.10%,the short-term impact of milk prices on beef prices was stronger,with a more pronounced effect of milk price declines on beef prices,while the impact of corn and soybean meal prices on beef prices weakened;(3)When the month-on-month CPI decreased by more than 0.10%,the average contribution of milk prices to beef price volatility increased by 11.89%.Therefore,the decline in milk prices accelerates the culling of low-yield dairy cattle,thereby increasing beef supply and contributing to the decline in beef prices.The impact of milk prices on beef prices is more significant when demand is weak.关键词
牛肉价格下跌/牛奶价格/TVAR模型/DY溢出指数/CPIKey words
beef price decline/milk price/TVAR model/DY spillover index/CPI分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
方正,王明利,鄢朝辉..奶价下跌对牛肉价格下跌的影响[J].中国农业资源与区划,2025,46(12):243-253,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目"基于可持续发展的畜牧业现代化路径与政策支持体系研究"(72033009) （72033009）
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(10-IAED-01-2024) （10-IAED-01-2024）
国家牧草产业技术体系专项资金(CARS-34-28) （CARS-34-28）
