中国药房2026，Vol.37Issue(3)：377-382,6.DOI:10.6039/j.issn.1001-0408.2026.03.18
基于季节性Mann-Kendall趋势检验的药品用量动态监测研究
Research on dynamic monitoring of drug consumption based on seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test
摘要
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To investigate a dynamic monitoring of drug consumption(DMDC)model based on the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test,aiming to provide scientific evidence for the efficient and macroscopic monitoring of drug use.METHODS A monitoring list of key outpatient drugs was established based on the top 20%of drugs ranked by sales volume in the outpatient pharmacy in October 2024.A DMDC model based on the Mann-Kendall trend test was constructed using the monthly usage data of key outpatient drugs from November 2021 to October 2024,aiming to eliminate the impact of seasonal fluctuations and analyze the temporal trends in drug consumption.Taking mucolytic expectorants,triazole derivatives for dermatophytosis,and single-agent hydroxymethylglutaryl coenzyme A(HMG-CoA)reductase inhibitors as examples,the monitoring effectiveness of the DMDC model was demonstrated,and its performance was compared with that achieved by the traditional sequential growth rate ranking method.RESULTS A total of 215 drug varieties were included in the monitoring list,and DMDC models were successfully established for all of them.Among these,119 showed a significant increasing trend(P＜0.05,S'＞0).The model successfully monitored the monthly consumption of mucolytic expectorants,triazole derivatives for dermatophytosis,and single-agent HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors.The precision and recall rates of the DMDC model for identifying abnormal drug use were 60.7%and 85.0%,respectively,both significantly higher than those of the sequential growth rate ranking method(8.3%and 15.0%,respectively)(χ2=20.114,P＜0.001;χ2=19.600,P＜0.001).CONCLUSIONS DMDC model based on the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test can effectively identify long-term trends in drug consumption,eliminate seasonal interference,enhance monitoring accuracy and management efficiency,and is suitable for the dynamic monitoring of drug consumption.关键词
药品用量/动态监测/季节性Mann-Kendall趋势检验/季节性波动Key words
drug consumption/dynamic monitoring/seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test/seasonal fluctuations分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
余子珩,陈辰,杨香瑜,李璐璐,张韶辉..基于季节性Mann-Kendall趋势检验的药品用量动态监测研究[J].中国药房,2026,37(3):377-382,6.基金项目
武汉市卫生健康委课题(No.S202406050039) （No.S202406050039）
