国际石油经济2026，Vol.34Issue(2)：1-13,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2026.02.001
国内外油气行业2025年发展及2026年展望
Oil and gas industry:2025 review and 2026 outlook
钱兴坤 1陆如泉 1罗良才 1吴谋远 1赵晨 1朱颖超 1廖钦1
作者信息
摘要
Abstract
In 2025,the global landscape was marked by complexity and transition,with the world economy remaining under pressure.Global energy consumption continued to grow steadily,while the green and low-carbon transition deepened amid growing regional divergences.International oil prices declined sharply,and natural gas prices in Europe and Asia entered a downward trajectory.Oil and gas production both experienced growth,led by increases in the Middle East and the Americas.The ethylene industry exhibited significant operational divergence,and international oil majors placed greater emphasis on development resilience.In China,the development of a new energy system and the enhancement of energy security accelerated significantly.The construction of a unified national energy market advanced steadily,ensuring strong supply reliability and an improved energy consumption mix.The"reducing oil output,increasing chemicals"strategy continued to progress with"reducing oil and lifting chemicals"of oil consumption structure,although natural gas consumption growth moderated.Both oil and gas production reached new highs,while the refining sector saw continued optimization and restructuring.The three major national oil companies achieved notable progress in high-quality development.Looking ahead to 2026,the international oil market is expected to loosen further,with the operational pivot of oil prices likely to shift downward and natural gas demand projected to grow at a low-to-moderate pace.Geopolitical dynamics will remain a key variable influencing the oil and gas industry's trajectory.In China,the energy structure will continue to optimize,with accelerated formation of a coordinated,multi-energy complementary system integrating source,grid,load,and storage.Oil apparent consumption is anticipated to increase modestly,while natural gas demand growth is expected to rebound.The petrochemical sector will continue to persue industrial transformation and upgrading.关键词
油气行业/产量/消费量/价格/炼油能力/能源转型/低碳Key words
oil and gas industry/production/consumption/prices/refining capacity/energy transition/low-carbon分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
钱兴坤,陆如泉,罗良才,吴谋远,赵晨,朱颖超,廖钦..国内外油气行业2025年发展及2026年展望[J].国际石油经济,2026,34(2):1-13,13.
