国际石油经济2026，Vol.34Issue(2)：52-60,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2026.02.005
中国成品油市场2025年回顾与2026年展望
Review of 2025 and outlook for 2026 on China's refined oil market
摘要
Abstract
In 2025,as China continued to advance its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and accelerated the energy transition,the refined oil products market sustained a downward trend in consumption.Annual consumption totaled 346 million tons,representing a year-on-year decline of 3.6%and falling below the pre-COVID-19 level recorded in 2019.The consumption structure displayed a distinct pattern,characterized by declining demand for gasoline and diesel and continued growth in aviation kerosene—a"two decreases and one increase"trend.Specifically,gasoline consumption decreased by 3.9%year-on-year,diesel consumption dropped by 5.0%,and aviation kerosene consumption rose by 3.7%,a significantly moderated growth rate.Meanwhile,total refining capacity expanded to 948 million tons per year and the production decreased by 3.9%amid contracting demand and export policies-oriented with the narrowed the supply-demand gap.Looking ahead to 2026,China's total refined oil product consumption is expected to decline further to 329 million tons,with the rate of decline widening to 4.7%.Gasoline and diesel consumption are projected to fall by 6.2%and 5.4%respectively,while aviation kerosene consumption growth is expected to maintain a steady pace of 3.3%.Refining capacity is anticipated to increase marginally to 963 million tons per year,and the oversupply of refined oil products in the domestic market is likely to remain pronounced.关键词
成品油/消费量/需求量/炼油能力/交通运输/新能源汽车Key words
refined oil products/consumption/demand/refining capacity/transportation/new energy vehicles分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
孔劲媛,李想,张虹雨,赵佳文..中国成品油市场2025年回顾与2026年展望[J].国际石油经济,2026,34(2):52-60,9.
