中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）2026，Vol.42Issue(1)：67-74,8.DOI:10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2026.01.0006
气候治理的协同效应:中国碳中和路径的多情景模拟研究
Synergistic Effects of Climate Governance:A Multi-Scenario Simulation Study of China̍s Carbon Neutrality Pathways
摘要
Abstract
Currently,it is imperative to address multiple challenges related to energy security,economic stability,and environmental quality for achieving China̍s"dual-carbon"goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality against the backdrop of deepening global cli-mate governance.Based on an Integrated Assessment Model(IAM),this study simulates the synergistic evolution pathways of China̍s energy-economic-environment(3E)system under varying climate governance intensities,setting four scenarios for the baseline,car-bon neutrality,2℃ and 1.5℃ targets.The results indicate that the stringency of climate policies is the decisive factor driving the energy system transformation.Under the carbon neutrality scenario,coal consumption declines sharply,while non-fossil energy sources experi-ence leapfrog growth.In addition,there is a significant synergistic effect between carbon emission reduction and environmental govern-ance.The carbon neutrality pathway achieves deep decarbonization while simultaneously leading to substantial co-reductions in atmos-pheric pollutants such as SO2 and N2 O.Moreover,notable cost-benefit differences are observed across different pathways.Transitioning from the baseline scenario to the carbon neutrality pathway falls within a high-efficiency zone,whereas pursuing the more ambitious 1.5℃target enters a high-cost trade-off zone with diminishing marginal benefits.The systematic quantification of synergistic effects and pathway trade-offs in this study are anticipated to offer theoretical insights and decision-making references for exploring robust pathways that harmonize energy,environmental,and economic development under China̍s carbon neutrality goal.关键词
碳中和/气候治理/能源转型/综合评估模型Key words
carbon neutrality/climate governance/energy transition/Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
王兆华,张昊天..气候治理的协同效应:中国碳中和路径的多情景模拟研究[J].中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）,2026,42(1):67-74,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(72321002) （72321002）
