电力需求侧管理2026，Vol.28Issue(2)：124-130,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2026.02.018
基于市场结构与市场趋势的火电企业碳交易策略研究
Research on carbon trading strategy of electric power enterprises based on market structure and market trends
摘要
Abstract
As key participants in the national carbon market,the rational use of trading strategies by thermal power enterprises is conducive to reducing compliance costs and enhancing the value of carbon assets.The microstructure of the carbon market is first characterized,and trading scenarios are classified into allowance surplus,balance,and deficit based on allowance allocation relative to compliance require-ments.Under each scenario,optimal strategy choices under strong-trend and weak-trend market states are examined,showing that trend-fol-lowing strategies perform best in strong-trend states,while mean-reversion strategies dominate in weak-trend states.Further results indicate that a combined strategy integrating both approaches outperforms single strategies,increasing returns by 3.0%～5.4%in surplus scenarios and by 17%～33%in balanced scenarios,while reducing costs by 0.1%～6.6%in deficit scenarios.A differentiated trading strategy frame-work based on market structure and market trends is thus constructed to guide thermal power enterprises in more effective participation in the national carbon market.关键词
碳配额市场/市场结构/市场趋势/寡头垄断/交易策略Key words
carbon trading market/market structure/market trend/oligopoly/trading tactics分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
冯田丰,王恩军,刘潇,汪可人..基于市场结构与市场趋势的火电企业碳交易策略研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2026,28(2):124-130,7.基金项目
上海市2025年度高水平机构建设运行计划"软科学研究"重点项目(25692100400) （25692100400）
2025年度决策咨询研究国际航运中心专项课题(2025-LH-HY01) （2025-LH-HY01）
