干旱区资源与环境2026，Vol.40Issue(3)：45-56,12.DOI:10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2026.042
国土空间规划约束下的欠发达地区土地利用多情景预测
Multi-scenario prediction of land use in underdeveloped region under the constraints of territorial space planning:A case study of Guyuan City,Ningxia
摘要
Abstract
To address the prominent contradiction between constraints of territorial space planning and land use demand in underdeveloped regions,as well as deviations in the implementation of planning strategics caused by uncertainty in the macro-effects of land economic activities,based on data from 2011 to 2022,this study takes Guyuan City,Ningxia as an example,to conduct a predictive research on three scenarios using method of NSGA-Ⅱ.Results reveal that:1)Under indirect constraints of territorial space planning,neither the scenario of solely pursuing"economic scale priority"nor"eco-efficiency priority"is appropriate,as the corresponding predicted target values exhibit a trade-off relationship.The GDP in the"coupling equilibrium of economic scale and eco-efficiency"scenario is closer to the target GDP that is predicted under the"economic scale priority"scenario,which helps alleviate underdevelopment,meanwhile,its eco-efficiency value is closer to the target eco-efficiency value that is predicted under the"ecological efficiency priority"scenario,thus balancing the eecological protection goals.2)Under direct constraints,all three scenarios indicate a significant increase in forest land,a decrease in garden land and grassland,and slight fluctuations in arable land.Construction land decreases only in the coupling equilibrium scenario,with land type conversion occurring within the forest-grass system,leading to the most stable land structure.3)The"eco-efficiency priority"scenario fails to change the underdeveloped status and simply relies on the adjustment of garden land,making it difficult to achieve green high-quality development goals.Accordingly,under constraints of territorial space planning,it should choose the coupling equilibrium development mode for underdeveloped regions,while single goals are prone to deviations from actual results.In the short term,reducing construction land and expanding forest land are priority,while improving technical levels is needed in the long term.Additionally,incorporating"GDP and eco-efficiency"into the territorial space planning inspection and evaluation index system can enhance the early warning function,to support the orientation of territorial space planning goals and effectiveness of total amount control,and reduce deviations from actual results.关键词
国土空间规划约束/欠发达地区/NSGA-Ⅱ算法/生态效率/经济规模Key words
constraints of territorial space planning/underdeveloped region/NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm/eco-efficiency/economic scale分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
程小珊,杨美玲,樊新刚..国土空间规划约束下的欠发达地区土地利用多情景预测[J].干旱区资源与环境,2026,40(3):45-56,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42161050 （）
42361027)资助. （）
