摘要
Abstract
Industrial intelligence(II),defined as the integration of next-generation digital technologies into production and firm management,has become a central vehicle of China's new quality productive forces(NQPFs).The transition toward II is inherently costly and uncertain,requiring substantial upfront investment.Consequently,many manufacturing firms postpone or underinvest in intelligent upgrading,raising a critical policy question of whether and how government intervention can effectively catalyze II development.
This paper focuses on the impact of government technical transformation(TT)subsidies on accelerating firms'II upgrading and its underlying mechanisms.Although TT policies have long aimed to promote equipment renewal,process upgrading,and digital retrofitting,systematic micro-level evidence on their role in facilitating II development remains limited.Using panel data from Chinese A-share listed manufacturing firms from 2012 to 2022,this paper constructs a firm-year TT subsidy measure based on detailed project-level records from the CSMAR database.Policy identification is ensured by combining keyword extraction from national policy documents,local implementation rules,and field materials with manual verification,retaining only subsidy items directly linked to equipment renewal,process upgrading,digital system deployment,and intelligent manufacturing adoption.Firms'II is captured by a composite index that integrates both investment-based and capability-based dimensions,reflecting the multidimensional nature of intelligent upgrading.
Empirical findings indicate that TT subsidies robustly increase firms'II levels.Mechanism analysis reveals three main channels.First,TT subsidies enable lumpy and partially irreversible intelligent investments by easing financing constraints,improving liquidity,raising expected returns,and reducing the effective costs of II upgrading.Second,TT subsidies elevate entrepreneurial and managerial attention to intelligent transformation,reinforcing strategic commitment,internal coordination,and upgrading priorities.Third,TT subsidies stimulate technological innovation,enhancing absorptive capacity,and facilitating the effective integration of intelligent technologies into products and production processes.
Policy effects display clear heterogeneity.Financing-related impacts arethe strongest for growth-stage firms;attention-driven effects are more pronounced among small firms;and innovation-driven effects are concentrated in large firms and state-owned enterprises.Institutional conditions further shape policy effectiveness:regions with higher rule-of-law and marketization levels can amplify the positive impact of TT subsidies on industrial intelligence.
Overall,this paper provides micro-level evidence that TT policies promote II upgrading and support the formation of NQPFs.The findings imply that TT policies should be tailored to firms'lifecycle stages and capabilities,coordinate fiscal subsidies with financial support and managerial guidance,and be complemented by continuous improvements in institutional quality to transform short-term policy inputs into sustained upgrading outcomes.关键词
新质生产力/工业智能化/技术改造/政府补贴/创新驱动Key words
new quality productive forces/industrial intelligence/technical transformation/government subsidy/innovation-driven development分类
管理科学
