井冈山大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.47Issue(2)：71-81,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8085.2026.02.009
气候变化对莲子草、空心莲子草及莲草直胸跳甲在中国潜在分布区域的影响
Potential distribution of Alternanthera sessilis,Alternanthera philoxeroides and Agasicles hygrophilain China under climate change
摘要
Abstract
Based on the distribution and 23 environmental variable data of Alternanthera sessilis,A.philoxeroides and Agasicles hygrophila in China,MaxEnt and ArcGIS were used for simulation and analysis to determine their suitable habitat areas,evaluate the main environmental factors affecting their distribution,determine potential distribution areas and centroids,and predict changes in suitable habitat areas under future climate scenarios.The results indicate that the seasonal variation coefficients of precipitation,human activities,and temperature in the warmest season play a major role in the geographical distribution of A.sessilis and A.philoxeroides,while precipitation,human activities,and altitude in the warmest season are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of A.hygrophila.Under current climate conditions,the suitable areas for the three species are mainly in southern China,with the high suitable areas for A.sessilis concentrated in Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Fujian,Guangdong,Guangxi,and other areas,covering an area of approximately 10800 km2;The high suitable areas for A.philoxeroides are concentrated in Jiangsu,Guizhou,Sichuan and other places,with an area of about 4400 km2;The high suitable habitat area for A.hygrophila is mainly in East China,Central China,and South China,with an area of approximately 137500 km2.In the future climate scenario,the suitable habitat area for A.hygrophila will migrate northward.Niche analysis shows a high degree of overlap between A.sessilis and A.philoxeroides.This study systematically elucidates the synergistic distribution and evolution law of"local species,invasive species and natural enemies"under the background of climate change,providing a scientific basis for formulating prevention and control strategies for A.philoxeroidesbased on biological control.关键词
ArcGIS/MaxEnt/适生区/生态位重叠/生物防治Key words
ArcGIS/MaxEnt/habitat suitability/niche overlap/biological control分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
肖盼,朱晓晗,肖海艳,陈书怡,苏启陶,杜丽,王宁..气候变化对莲子草、空心莲子草及莲草直胸跳甲在中国潜在分布区域的影响[J].井冈山大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,47(2):71-81,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32560269,31660123) （32560269,31660123）
井冈山大学博士科研启动项目(JZB2005) （JZB2005）
