气象与环境学报2025，Vol.41Issue(5)：76-84,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.05.009
辽宁玉米春播气象服务效益定量评价方法研究
Research on quantitative evaluation method of meteorological service benefits for spring maize planting in Liaoning Province
摘要
Abstract
Evaluation of the benefits of agricultural meteorological services is a crucial basis for improving the agri-cultural-meteorological service methods and enhancing service capabilities and effectiveness.In this study,six ex-perimental sites were established in Jinzhou and Tieling cities,Liaoning Province,where a one year-long compara-tive experiment on spring maize planting meteorological services was conducted in 2023.By observing meteoro-logical elements,such as maize growth stages,emergence rate,net photosynthetic rate,water and fertilizer manage-ment,crop model simulations and field surveys,the benefits of spring maize planting meteorological services were quantitatively evaluated from four aspects:timing,management,yield,and economics benefit.The results indicate that in 2023,compared with farmer-managed experimental maize production plots(farmer-managed control plots),the experimental plots in fine-tuned spring maize planting meteorological services(meteorological service plots)showed an average advancement of maize planting dates by 13 days,an extension of the entire growth peri-od by 10 days,utilization of accumulated growing degree days increase by 86.0℃.The average emergence rate increased by 4.7%.The drought resistance of maize during summer was enhanced,with an increase of 16 μmol CO2 m-·2 s-1 in leaf net photosynthetic rate in responsive plots and a noticeable delay in leaf wilting exceeding more than 2 hours.Validation of the crop model showed that the normalized root mean square error(NRMSE)and the concordance index between the observed and simulated maize growth stages ranged from 1.55%to 1.78%and from 0.77 to 0.90,respectively.For maize yield,the NRMSE was 7.10%,with a concordance index of 0.83,indi-cating a good consistency between observed and simulated values,and confirming the reliability of the experimental results.The contributions of spring maize planting meteorological services to yield increase and net income is 9.2%and 12.6%,respectively.关键词
玉米/春播气象服务/效益评价/对比试验/定量化Key words
Maize/Spring maize planting meteorological services/Benefit evaluation/Comparative experiment/Quantification分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张慧,刘敏,高全,王蛟洋,吴航,纪瑞鹏,陈鹏狮..辽宁玉米春播气象服务效益定量评价方法研究[J].气象与环境学报,2025,41(5):76-84,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2024YFD2301303)、中国气象局2024年度气象软科学面上项目(2024MSXM03)、辽宁省气象局年度基金(202505)、2024年辽宁省自然科学基金计划博士科研启动项目(2024-BS-337)和辽宁省应用基础研究计划(2022JH2/101300193)共同资助. （2024YFD2301303）
