热带气象学报2026，Vol.42Issue(1)：25-38,14.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2026.003
台风"海葵"(2012)进入鞍型场后移动路径和强降水预报对初始场的敏感性研究
A Sensitivity Study on the Initial Field for the Track and Heavy Precipitation Forecast of Typhoon Haikui(2012)after Entering the Saddle Field
摘要
Abstract
Typhoon Haikui(2012)was influenced by a saddle-point flow field,resulting in nearly stationary movement in southern Anhui and causing extreme rainfall.To examine the sensitivity of the track and precipitation forecast of Haikui to the model's initial conditions after entering the saddle-point region,ensemble forecast experiments and sensitivity experiments were conducted for Haikui using the Weather Research&Forecasting(WRF)model coupled with an Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF)assimilation system.The results show that:(1)After Typhoon Haikui made landfall in Zhejiang and moved northwestward into Anhui,typhoon tracks forecast by ensemble forecasting experiments can mainly be divided into the stagnation type,the eastward-turning type,and the westward-moving type.The stagnation tracks are most similar to the observed track of Haikui.(2)Compared with the circulation of the typhoon itself,differences in the environmental field of initial conditions are the key factor causing variations in typhoon motion in the experiments.The typhoon's movement is more sensitive to the continental high-pressure system and mid-latitude trough in the northwestern part of the simulation domain.(3)When the intensities of the continental high and trough are comparable in the initial field,the weakened typhoon circulation remains between the continental high and the subtropical high,leading to stagnation over southern Anhui.This,combined with cold air interaction,results in heavy rainfall in southern Anhui and northern Jiangxi.When the continental high is weak and the trough is strong in the initial field,the typhoon is forecasted to be in a saddle-point field in the 24-hour forecast.However,both the continental high and the subtropical high are relatively weak.As the trough moves southward,the continental high weakens and retreats westard,and the subtropical high shifts eastward.The typhoon then turns northeastward,resulting in heavy rainfall in Jiangsu.Conversely,when the continental high is strong but the trough is weak,the typhoon continues moving westward.The influence of the trough and cold air shifts to the north.Cold air is blocked by the high pressure and fails to directly interact with the typhoon's circulation,resulting in relatively weaker precipitation in southern Anhui.关键词
台风"海葵"(2012)/鞍型场/集合预报Key words
typhoon Haikui(2012)/saddle field/ensemble forecasts分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘俏,邱学兴,朱红芳,安晶晶,王东勇,王根..台风"海葵"(2012)进入鞍型场后移动路径和强降水预报对初始场的敏感性研究[J].热带气象学报,2026,42(1):25-38,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3007700) （2023YFC3007700）
全国暴雨研究开放基金项目(BYKF2024Q09) （BYKF2024Q09）
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2308085QD129、2408085MD102) （2308085QD129、2408085MD102）
安徽省高校杰出青年科研项目(2022AH020093)共同资助 （2022AH020093）
