热带气象学报2026，Vol.42Issue(1)：83-93,11.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2026.007
CO2强迫下广东地表气温响应及其不确定性归因
Surface Temperature Response to CO2 Forcing in Guangdong:A Quantitative Attribution of Uncertainties
摘要
Abstract
Based on simulations from 18 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study uses the piControl experiment as a reference for a base climate state and the abrup-4×CO2 experiment to simulate the climate response under an extreme greenhouse gas forcing scenario.The Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method(CFRAM)was employed to quantitatively evaluate the contributions of external forcings,various radiative feedback processes,and non-radiative processes to the warming over Guangdong Province and the associated uncertainties.The results show that the projected warming over Guangdong varies across models with an estimated range of 3.71℃to 7.07℃,and a robust estimate centered between 4.42℃and 5.40℃.The warming is most pronounced in the western and northern regions of the province.A quantitative attribution analysis of the multi-model ensemble mean indicates that water vapor feedback and CO2 forcing are the primary drivers of the projected warming,contributing 4.92℃and 2.42℃,respectively.Surface heat storage and cloud feedback also provide significant positive contributions to the warming,while surface sensible heat flux and latent heat flux contribute to a cooling effect.Uncertainty analysis reveals that cloud shortwave radiative effects,surface sensible heat flux,and surface heat storage are the main sources of uncertainty,stemming primarily from differences in model representations of cloud physics,surface energy balance,and heat redistribution.Future research to improve the accuracy of regional climate projections should focus on better constraining these key processes.关键词
二氧化碳/地表气温/气候反馈/CMIP6/不确定性Key words
carbon dioxide/surface temperature/climate feedback/CMIP6/uncertainty分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
孔蕴淇,邓玉娇,胡晓明..CO2强迫下广东地表气温响应及其不确定性归因[J].热带气象学报,2026,42(1):83-93,11.基金项目
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2024A1515510009) （2024A1515510009）
广东省气象局科学技术项目(GRMC2023Q01)共同资助 （GRMC2023Q01）
