生态环境学报2026，Vol.35Issue(3)：414-424,11.DOI:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2026.03.008
基于MaxEnt模型预测加拿大一枝黄花在福建的潜在入侵风险区
MaxEnt-Based Prediction of Potential Risk Areas for Solidago canadensis in Fujian
摘要
Abstract
Studying the ecological distribution patterns of invasive species under climate change is critical for developing regional control strategies.To simulate and predict the potential invasion of Solidago canadensis in Fujian under two climate change scenarios(SSP126 and SSP585)in the current and two future periods(2041-2060 and 2061-2080),we used the adopted MaxEnt model based on field survey data and environmental factors(climate,terrain,and soil),and applied the ENM Tool and R language software to optimize the model parameters and data screening.The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)of the training and test datasets was 0.915,indicating that the simulation effect of the model was good.Temperature seasonality,soil base saturation,altitude,and precipitation in the warmest quarter were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Solidago canadensis,with a total contribution rate of 81.7%.The current potential invasion risk area of Solidago canadensis covers approximately 50100 km2,accounting for 41.25%of Fujian's total land area.The high-risk areas for Solidago canadensis invasion based on field surveys and model predictions were mainly concentrated in northern and eastern Fujian,including Nanping,Ningde,and Fuzhou.The risk invasion areas showed a trend of a continuous increase under two future climate scenarios,and the response was more sensitive under the highest carbon emission scenario(SSP585).The trend of Solidago canadensis invasion is mainly from north to south in Fujian,and the distribution center would move from the current Yanping area to Shaxian.This study provides ecological and theoretical support for the risk assessment,monitoring,and early warning,as well as the prevention and control of Solidago canadensis in Fujian Province.关键词
外来物种入侵/加拿大一枝黄花/最大熵模型/气候变化Key words
invasive species/Solidago canadensis/MaxEnt model/climate change分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
徐龙龙,陈晓玲,谢团辉,姜超,徐波,石振华,陈炎辉..基于MaxEnt模型预测加拿大一枝黄花在福建的潜在入侵风险区[J].生态环境学报,2026,35(3):414-424,11.基金项目
农业农村部农业外来入侵物种发生危害及扩散风险等调查项目(13220140) （13220140）
