医学新知2026，Vol.36Issue(2)：132-137,6.DOI:10.12173/j.issn.1004-5511.202509094
2014-2023年潍坊市日均气温与水痘发病关系:基于分布滞后非线性模型分析
Relationship between daily average temperature and varicella incidence in Weifang City from 2014 to 2023:analysis based on a distributed lag nonlinear model
摘要
Abstract
Objective To systematically assess the non-linear and lag effects of daily mean temperature on varicella incidence in Weifang using a distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM).Methods Surveillance data on varicella cases and concurrent meteorological data in the Weifang area from January 2014 to December 2023 were collected.A DLNM was applied to analyze the exposure-response relationship between daily mean temperature and varicella incidence in Weifang area.Results A total of 7,871 varicella cases were reported in Weifang area during the study period.Daily mean temperature correlated negatively with case counts(rs=-0.235,P<0.001).With the median of daily mean temperature(15.69℃)as the reference value,the relative risk(RR)value was higher under low temperature conditions,and the influence of low temperature appeared in the early lag period(0～9 d),while the effect of hightemperature showed a two-stage characteristic.Inthe earlylag(0～7days),it was a weak riskfactor,but inthe later lag(e.g.,14 days),it may turnintoa protective factor.Subgroup analysis revealed that varicella incidence had significant seasonal heterogeneity and age differences,and the incidence risk of the 3～6 years old group in winter was 1.9 times that in summer,showing an obvious seasonal fluctuation pattern.Sensitivity analysis confirmed model robustness.Conclusion Temperature nonlinearly influences varicella incidence in Weifang,with low temperatures posing sustained risks and high temperatures exhibiting a mild and biphasic lag pattern.Prevention and control measures should be strengthened in crowded places such as schools and childcare institutions.关键词
水痘/气象因素/气温/分布滞后非线性模型Key words
Varicella/Meteorological factors/Temperature/Distributed lag non-linear model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
李梓菡,彭鹏,赵文嘉,邴瑜,殷大鹏,徐成东,胡跃华,栾桂杰,王园园..2014-2023年潍坊市日均气温与水痘发病关系:基于分布滞后非线性模型分析[J].医学新知,2026,36(2):132-137,6.基金项目
北京市自然科学基金(L202008) （L202008）
中国疾病预防控制中心课题(251715) （251715）
中国疾病预防控制中心横向课题(0589、0583) （0589、0583）
潍坊市科技发展计划项目(2024YX098) （2024YX098）
