中国防汛抗旱2026，Vol.36Issue(3)：11-16,6.DOI:10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2026120
海河"25·7"区域性大洪水模拟复盘分析
Simulation and post-analysis of the"25·7"regional major flood in the Haihe River Basin
摘要
Abstract
From late July to early August 2025,a regional major flood event occurred in the Haihe River Basin,with multiple flood processes observed in sub-basins including the Daqing River,Jiyun River,Chaobai River and Beiyun River.Leveraging the China Flash Flood Hydrological Model(CNFF),a retrospective analysis and calculation of floods were performed for key cross-sections within the basin,aiming to identify the sources of simulation errors.The results indicate that the CNFF model exhibits high precision and reliability at most monitoring stations across the basin,thereby proving its suitability for flood simulation in the Haihe River Basin.The primary contributors to model calculation errors include disparities in basin characteristics,inaccuracies in rainfall data input and variations in initial basin conditions.Based on the error analysis,model optimization should prioritize the following aspects:enhancing the spatial resolution of rainfall data to mitigate the smoothing effect;refining the unit division of large-scale basins;adjusting model parameters according to different underlying surface types and incorporating the influence of initial basin conditions into the simulation process.关键词
海河流域/"25·7"/暴雨洪水/中国山洪水文模型(CNFF)/复盘分析Key words
Haihe River Basin/"25·7"/rainstorm flood/Chinese Flash Flood Hydrological Model(CNFF)/post-analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李志诚,李匡,柴福鑫,赵英虎,张明辉,和思羽..海河"25·7"区域性大洪水模拟复盘分析[J].中国防汛抗旱,2026,36(3):11-16,6.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3209202) （2023YFC3209202）
中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目(WH0145B032021) （WH0145B032021）
天津市防洪调度应急指挥平台建设项目(JZ120205A0042024). （JZ120205A0042024）
