东北林业大学学报2026，Vol.54Issue(4)：1-8,8.
长白落叶松人工林径向生长情景的ARIMA模型构建
ARIMA Model Construction for Radial Growth Scenarios of Larix olgensis Plantations
摘要
Abstract
Taking the Larix olgensis plantations in Mengjiagang Forest Farm of Heilongjiang Province as the research object,an ARIMA model was constructed based on tree ring width data to analyze the time-series characteristics of radial growth and simulate its dynamic processes.Cross-dating and chronology establishment for 167 tree core samples were conducted using the COFFCHA method,and correlation analysis was applied to quantify the relationship between tree ring width and climat-ic factors.After the stationary time series was obtained via the ADF unit root test,the optimal model was identified as ARI-MA(2,1,0)according to the AIC and BIC criteria.Furthermore,the Monte Carlo simulation method based on residual va-riance was introduced to construct multi-scenario predictions of radial growth over the next 50 years,so as to reflect the growth fluctuations under the background of climate change.Finally,139 valid sequences were retained,with the master chronology spanning 62 years,a correlation coefficient of 0.493,and a mean sensitivity of 0.303.The model exhibited good performance in the predictions for 2022-2023,with a root mean square error of 0.1319,a mean absolute error of 0.1015,and a mean absolute percentage error of 15.52%.All predicted values fell within the 90%confidence interval,indicating excellent fitting results.The Ljung-Box test further verified that the residual sequence was white noise,suggesting that the model had no omitted structures.The research conclusions show that the model can realize effective medium-and long-term predictions of the future radial growth of forest stands without relying on a large amount of external climatic data,and is ap-plicable to the management practices of plantations with relatively limited data.The generation of multiple growth scenarios combined with random perturbation simulation is conducive to evaluating the growth volatility and potential risks of forest stands under different future climatic conditions,thereby providing quantitative support for plantation tending,rotation age determination,and dynamic carbon sink management.关键词
长白落叶松/ARIMA/树木生长轮/随机性/时间序列/情景模拟Key words
Larix olgensis/ARIMA/Tree rings/Randomness/Time series/Scenario simulation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
贺思雨,金星姬,童茜坪,李凤日..长白落叶松人工林径向生长情景的ARIMA模型构建[J].东北林业大学学报,2026,54(4):1-8,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金区域创新发展联合基金项目(U21A20244). （U21A20244）
