灌溉排水学报2026，Vol.45Issue(3)：120-132,13.DOI:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025233
长江流域气象干旱演变规律及其成因研究
Spatiotemporal dynamics,drivers and prediction of drought in the Yangtze River Basin under climate change
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The Yangtze River Basin is a major economic and ecological region in China and has experienced increasing drought frequency and intensity in recent decades.This paper investigates the spatiotemporal variations in drought and its underlying drivers in this basin.[Method]Seasonal and interannual variations in meteorological variables and drought indices were analyzed using data measured from weather stations across the basin.Different meteorological indices were compared as proxies for drought monitoring and prediction.Drought duration,intensity and spatiotemporal evolution were analyzed using run-length theory and wavelet analysis;dominant atmospheric circulation factors influencing drought were identified using collinearity diagnostics and Pearson correlation analysis.Drought prediction models were developed using multiple linear regression and the extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)algorithm,based on optimal drought and circulation indices.[Result]①Summer was characterized by extreme precipitation and high temperature,whereas winter was associated with low temperature.Warming and drying intensified in the downstream plains,while drought in the upstream mountainous regions was modulated by topography.SPI,SPEI and EDDI were complementary in drought monitoring.SPEI,incorporating temperature and evapotranspiration effects,was more accurate under warming conditions.Integrating multiple indices improved early prediction.Spatially,drought risk shifted westward in that,since 198,the centroid of drought severity has shifted westward,accompanied by shorter drought duration and increasing peak intensity in high-altitude western areas.②Large-scale circulation patterns,particularly the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO),dominantly influenced drought through multi-scale interactions.The AMO-SPEI coupling varied seasonally and interannually,reflecting nonlinear ocean-atmosphere feedbacks.Increases in temperature,especially minimum temperature,and decreases in wind speed were responsible for drought intensification.Nonlinear interactions between evapotranspiration and precipitation explained the spatiotemporal variations in drought.The XGBoost model was superior to multiple linear regression in capturing nonlinear drought dynamics;its coefficient of determination for long-term drought prediction was R2=0.56.Projections indicated that drought frequency,duration and severity in the basin are likely to increase during 2021-2050,although peak drought intensity during 2031-2050 may return to baseline levels.[Conclusion]Flooding and drought management in the Yangtze River Basin should consider both large-scale climatic drivers and regional heterogeneity.SPEI can be used as a drought proxy under warming conditions,supplemented by other indices to ensure predictive accuracy.Accounting for multi-scale circulation interactions and nonlinear climate processes is essential for drought risk assessment and management.The projected increase in drought underscores the urgency of developing robust mitigation strategies to reduce the impacts of severe and extreme droughts.关键词
长江流域/干旱演变/环流指数/干旱预测/XGBoostKey words
Yangtze River Basin/evolution of drought/circulation index/drought prediction/XGBoost分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
俞佳固,刘思果,杨可,姚宁..长江流域气象干旱演变规律及其成因研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(3):120-132,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52209070) （52209070）
大学生创新创业训练项目(202210712164) （202210712164）
