干旱区地理2026，Vol.49Issue(3)：484-495,12.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.281
中国西北干旱区大型湖泊湖冰物候时空差异及影响因素
Spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of lake ice phenology in large lakes of the arid region of northwest China
摘要
Abstract
Based on a Bayesian ensemble change detection algorithm,this study integrates passive microwave da-ta,MODIS products,and meteorological and hydrological variables to comprehensively analyze lake ice phenolo-gy and its driving factors for seven large lakes in the arid region of northwest China over the period 1978-2022.The results are summarized as follows:(1)Cross-validation between passive microwave remote sensing data and Landsat observations yields a mean coefficient of determination of 0.86,with a mean absolute error of 1.56 days and a root mean square error of 2.52 days.These results indicate that passive microwave data provide a feasible and reliable approach for extracting lake ice phenology,despite minor local discrepancies.(2)Across the seven lakes in the arid region of northwest China,the average onset of ice formation occurred between November 17 and January 19 of the following year,while complete ice-off dates ranged from July 11 to October 25.The mean ice-covered duration was 143 days.All lakes exhibited a shortening trend in ice duration,with Bosten Lake showing the smallest reduction rate(0.24 days per decade)and Sayram Lake the largest(0.55 days per decade).(3)Lake freeze-onset dates displayed both advancing and delaying trends,whereas ice-off dates predominantly advanced in the arid region of northwest China from 1978 to 2022.For most lakes,the onset and complete freeze dates were de-layed at rates of 0.09-0.38 days per decade and 0.24-0.29 days per decade,respectively.In contrast,a few lakes,including Jili Lake and Bosten Lake,exhibited advancing freeze-onset trends.In high-latitude regions(excluding Ebinur Lake),ice-off dates advanced significantly at rates of 0.27-0.48 days per decade,whereas high-altitude lakes exhibited weaker trends ranging from 0.12 to 0.27 days per decade.(4)Lake ice freeze-thaw cycles in the arid region of northwest China are jointly controlled by meteorological factors(wind speed,snow cover,precipita-tion,and near-surface air temperature)and hydrological characteristics(lake area and water transparency).Near-surface air temperature directly governs the timing of lake ice freezing and melting,whereas lake area and trans-parency indirectly influence ice phenology by regulating water heat capacity and solar radiation absorption.关键词
湖冰物候/时空差异/贝叶斯集合变化检测/影响因素/中国西北干旱区Key words
lake ice phenology/spatiotemporal differences/Bayesian ensemble change detection/influencing factors/arid region of northwest China引用本文复制引用
周灵敏,伊木然·库鲁万,玉素甫江·如素力,吴海智,娜扎开提·尼加提..中国西北干旱区大型湖泊湖冰物候时空差异及影响因素[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(3):484-495,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42461056) （42461056）
大学生创新创业项目(202210762005,202110762006) （202210762005,202110762006）
新疆维吾尔自治区科技创新基地建设计划项目(2020D04039)资助 （2020D04039）
