湖泊科学2026，Vol.38Issue(2)：817-830,14.DOI:10.18307/2026.0241
三峡水库调蓄与流域来水对2020年以来鄱阳湖极端洪/枯水情的影响
Impacts of Three Gorges Reservoir regulation and basin inflow on extreme flood-drought events in Lake Poyang since 2020
摘要
Abstract
Under the combined influences of inflow from the Yangtze River and the five in-lake rivers basin,Lake Poyang has ex-perienced frequent extreme flood-drought events in recent years.Rapid transitions between floods and droughts from 2020 to 2024 have heightened uncertainty in its hydrological regimes.In this study,the long short-term memory(LSTM)network and the MIKE21 hydrodynamic model were integrated to examine the impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)regulation and basin inflow on extreme flood-drought events in Lake Poyang in recent years through scenario-based comparative analyses.The results in-dicate that:(1)TGR regulation moderately mitigated flood risk in Lake Poyang,whereas reduced basin inflow resulted in lower water levels.The combined effect of these factors exacerbated autumn drought conditions.(2)Under combined influences,TGR regulation was the dominant factor controlling water level variations during the flood season,reducing extreme flood levels by 0.09-0.38 m(accounting for 58％-81％of the total combined effect),while reduced basin inflow was the primary driver of water level decline during the dry season(a decrease of 0.13-1.12 m,contributing 35％—100％).(3)During extreme floods,TGR regulation affected the entire lake,lowering water levels by up to 1.32-1.38 m,with effects diminishing from north to south.Dur-ing extreme droughts,reduced basin inflow mainly influenced the main channel and the southern inflow zone of the Fuhe River,re-ducing water levels by 0-3.96 m and decreasing the water surface area by 516.03 km2.These findings provide scientific support for accurately identifying dominant factors in extreme hydrological events,optimizing water level regulation strategies,and impro-ving regional hydrological risk management in Lake Poyang.关键词
三峡水库/流域来水/极端洪枯水情/水动力模拟/长短期记忆网络/鄱阳湖Key words
Three Gorges Reservoir/basin inflow/extreme flood-drought events/hydrodynamic simulation/long short-term memo-ry network/Lake Poyang引用本文复制引用
聂珉川,姚静,龚磊强,蔡永久,熊丽黎,梁涵玮,王晓龙,谭志强..三峡水库调蓄与流域来水对2020年以来鄱阳湖极端洪/枯水情的影响[J].湖泊科学,2026,38(2):817-830,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2240219,42171104,32471651)、江西省科技重大专项项目(20252ABF010001)、江西省重点研发计划项目(20223BBG74003)、"赣鄱英才计划"创新领军人才项目"(gpyc20240050)和鄱阳湖流域生态水利技术创新中心开放研究基金(2023skls05)联合资助. （U2240219,42171104,32471651）
