中国当代医药2026，Vol.33Issue(4)：16-20,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-4721.2026.04.03
构建慢性肾功能衰竭血液透析患者发生自体动静脉内瘘栓塞的列线图模型
Constructing a column chart model for the occurrence of autogenous arte-riovenous fistula embolism in patients with chronic renal failure undergo-ing hemodialysis
摘要
Abstract
Objective Analyze the risk factors for the occurrence of autogenous arteriovenous fistula embolism in patients with chronic renal failure after hemodialysis,and constructed a corresponding prediction model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 288 patients with chronic renal failure undergoing hemodialysis at Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital Ganzhou Hospital from October 2023 to October 2024.The patients were divided into the occurrence group(n=52)and the non-occurrence group(n=236)based on whether they had autogenous arteriovenous fistula embolism.The clinical data of the two groups,including age,gender,smoking history,drinking history,whether they had hypertension,diabetes,and hyperlipidemia,whether there was fistula infection,fistula usage time,and blood dialysis post-pressure time,as well as laboratory indicators such as hemoglobin,low-density lipoprotein,and calcium-phosphorus product,were statistically analyzed.Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors of autogenous arteriovenous fistula embolism in patients.Results Univariate analysis showed that there were statistically significant differences between the two groups in terms of age,whether they had diabetes and hyperlipidemia,low-density lipoprotein,calcium-phosphorus product,and blood dialysis post-pressure time(P＜0.05).The ROC curve results showed that the AUC of age,low-density lipoprotein,calcium-phosphorus product,and blood dialysis post-pressure time were 0.789,0.802,0.721,and 0.802,respectively.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age(β=-0.318,OR=0.728,95%CI:0.652-0.821),dia-betes(β=2.301,OR=9.986,95%CI:3.145-31.705),low-density lipoprotein(β=-4.439,OR=0.012,95%CI:0.003-0.055),calcium-phosphorus product(β=-0.103,OR=0.902,95%CI:0.856-0.950),and blood dialysis post-pressure time(β=-0.250,OR=0.779,95%CI:0.705-0.860)were all independent risk factors for self-arteriovenous fistula embolism in pa-tients with chronic renal failure after hemodialysis(P＜0.05).The prediction model was verified by the calibration curve,with a C-index of 0.797(95%CI:0.773-0.822),indicating a good agreement with the actual observation results,and the de-cision curve showed a relatively objective clinical benefit.Conclusion Age,diabetes,low-density lipoprotein,calci-um-phosphorus product,and blood dialysis post-pressure time are all independent risk factors for autogenous arteriovenous fistula embolism in patients with chronic renal failure after hemodialysis,and the constructed nomogram model has good clinical application value.Clinicians can conduct targeted interventions based on the influencing factors.关键词
慢性肾功能衰竭/血液透析/动静脉内瘘栓塞/列线图模型Key words
Chronic renal failure/Hemodialysis/Arteriovenous fistula embolization/Nomogram model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
谢彦宏,温秀荣..构建慢性肾功能衰竭血液透析患者发生自体动静脉内瘘栓塞的列线图模型[J].中国当代医药,2026,33(4):16-20,5.基金项目
江西省卫生健康委科技计划项目(20202076). （20202076）
