生物灾害科学2026，Vol.49Issue(1)：75-86,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-3704.2026.01.10
基于Logistic回归模型的吉安市森林火灾发生概率预测
Prediction of forest fire occurrence probability in Ji'an City based on a Logistic regression model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aimed to predict the probability of forest fires in Ji'an City,Jiangxi Province,providing a scientific basis for precise prevention and control of forest fires in the region.[Method]Based on MODIS fire point data from 2001 to 2020,combined with multi-dimensional factors such as meteorology,topography,vegetation,and human activities,the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and driving mechanisms of forest fires in Ji'an City,Jiangxi Province,were analyzed.Multiple collinearity diagnosis and correlation analysis were used to screen key influencing factors,and a Logistic regression(Binary Logistic Regression)model was constructed to predict the probability of forest fires.The performance of the model was evaluated by using a confusion matrix and the area under the curve(AUC)value.[Result](1)The interannual variation of forest fires in Ji'an City exhibited a 5-year cyclical fluctuation,with most fires occurring between September and April of the following year,and the spatial distribution showed a pattern of higher incidence in the north than in the south,and more in the west than in the east.(2)Population density,vegetation index of the previous month,altitude,rainfall of the current month,temperature of the previous month,and nighttime light index were the main driving factors of fire occurrence,among which current-month rainfall and nighttime light index were positively correlated with fire risk,while the other factors showed negative correlations.(3)The probability of fire occurrence ranged between 0.2 and 0.7,with Yongfeng County,Anfu County,Yongxin County,Ji'an County,and Suichuan County identified as high-risk areas.(4)The model achieved an AUC value of 0.748,demonstrating good predictive performance and providing a scientific basis for targeted forest fire prevention and management in Ji'an City.[Conclusion]A scientific basis for forest fire risk management in Ji'an City can be provided by this study.It is recommended that monitoring and early warning systems be strengthened in high-risk areas,and that differentiated prevention and control measures be implemented according to the various driving factors.关键词
森林火灾发生概率/森林火险/MODIS/Logistic回归Key words
forest fire occurrence probability/forest fire risk/MODIS/Logistic regression分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
焦鸿渤,叶清,彭佳慧,郑育桃,曹子琪,陈俊松..基于Logistic回归模型的吉安市森林火灾发生概率预测[J].生物灾害科学,2026,49(1):75-86,12.基金项目
江西省林业局林业科技创新专项([2022]12号) （[2022]12号）
