林业经济2025，Vol.47Issue(9)：5-22,18.
目标引"林":经济增长目标调整何以影响森林覆盖率?
How can economic growth target adjustment affect forest coverage rate?
摘要
Abstract
Under the constraint of economic growth targets,how to improve forest coverage rate and promote the construction of lucid waters and lush mountains is a crucial practical issue that urgently needs to be addressed.This paper employed a panel dataset of Chinese prefecture-level cities spanning 2013 to 2022 and adopted an instrumental variable fixed-effects model to empirically examine the relationship between economic growth target adjustment and forest coverage rate,along with its intrinsic mechanism.The estimation results showed that:(1)The coefficient capturing the impact of economic growth target adjustments on forest coverage was-0.119,which was statistically significant at the 5%level,indicating that economic growth target adjustment significantly promoted an increase in forest coverage rate.(2)Mechanism tests revealed that the coefficients of the impact of economic growth target adjustments on the expected growth rate of fiscal revenue,general budgetary fiscal revenue,and the share of primary industry in GDP were 1.580,13.623,and-0.326,respectively,which were significant at the 1%,5%,and 1%level.These findings suggested that the downward adjustment of economic growth targets affected forest coverage rate primarily through two channels:reducing fiscal revenue and facilitating agricultural transformation and development.Furthermore,increases in the fiscal self-sufficiency rate and employment growth targets reinforced the incentive effect of downward adjustments to economic growth targets on raising forest coverage rate.Policy implications:further promote the transformation of development targets,abandon the extensive land finance model,prioritize the high-quality development of agriculture,optimize the target management system,and formulate a policy mix characterized by incentive compatibility.关键词
森林覆盖率/经济增长目标调整/生态文明/发展转型Key words
forest coverage rate/economic growth target adjustment/ecological civilization/development transformation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
仇童伟,邱建平,张连刚..目标引"林":经济增长目标调整何以影响森林覆盖率?[J].林业经济,2025,47(9):5-22,18.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目"农业要素市场转型过程中的耕地撂荒研究:时空格局、形成机理与应对举措"(4240011419). （4240011419）
