山东国土资源2026，Vol.42Issue(3)：70-78,9.DOI:10.12128/j.issn.1672-6979.2026.03.010
山东日照东港区土地利用演变与未来模拟分析
Analysis on Land Use Evolution and Future Simulation in Donggang District in Rizhao City in Shandong Province
摘要
Abstract
In the process of rapid urbanization,land use types are constantly changing.Urban expansion,reduction of agricultural land and degradation of ecological land are widespread.Scientifically analyzing the evolution patterns of land use and predicting future land use patterns are of great significance for optimi-zing the layout of national land space,coordinating the relationship between humans and land,and promo-ting ecological environmental protection and sustainable development.Taking Donggang district in Rizhao city in Shandong province as the research area,by using multi-temporal land use data from 2014 to 2022,the evolution characteristics of land use pattern in this area have been analyzed.By using PLUS model,land use pattern in 2030 has been stimulated,and its future development trend has been studied.As showed by the research results,construction land in Donggang district has continued to expand from 2014 to 2022.The impervious surface area has increased from 275.43km2 to 318.44km2.It is expected to grow to 356.42km2 by 2030.It is mainly from the transformation of arable land.Ecological land tends to be sta-ble as a whole.The forest area has increased from 62.88km2 to 71.69km2,and it is expected to reach 80.24km2 by 2030.The water body area has increased from 32.95km2 to 34.46km2,and it is expected to increase to 36.47km2 by 2030.Land use changes are driven by a variety of factors,among which popula-tion density and nighttime light index are main influencing factors of urban construction land expansion,while topography,precipitation and vegetation cover are still key driving factors for the distribution of eco-logical land.This study will provide a scientific basis for land use planning of Donggang district,and pro-vide some references for sustainable development in other regions.关键词
土地利用/PLUS模型/用地扩张/未来模拟/日照市东港区/山东省Key words
Land use/PLUS model/land expansion/future simulation/Donggang district in Rizhao city/Shandong province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王程松,董玉芬,张启慧,安杰,曾庆友..山东日照东港区土地利用演变与未来模拟分析[J].山东国土资源,2026,42(3):70-78,9.基金项目
日照市东港区国土空间生态修复规划(2021-2035)编制项目(项目编号:DD2021005) （2021-2035）
