生态学杂志2026，Vol.45Issue(2)：491-499,9.DOI:10.13292/j.1000-4890.202602.019
南方沿海防护林主要树种木麻黄适生区分布特征
The distribution pattern of the suitable areas for Casuarina equisetifolia,a major tree species in the south-ern coastal protective forest
摘要
Abstract
Casuarina equisetifolia,the predominant tree species in coastal shelter forests of southern China,is known for its rapid growth,strong sprouting ability,high-temperature tolerance,and effective windbreak perform-ance.Predicting suitable habitat patterns under current and future climate scenarios is crucial for establishing coast-al shelter forests in southern China.Utilizing the data from 793 distribution sites of C.equisetifolia across China and various environmental factors,we used the Maxent model to determine the current distribution pattern of C.equiseti-folia under existing climate conditions,as well as its potential geographical distribution under future climate change scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.The results showed that:(1)the Maxent model exhibited high accuracy,with an area under curve value of 0.979.Environmental factors,such as the active accumulated temperatures of ≥ 10 ℃and the highest temperature in the coldest month,significantly affected the distribution of C.equisetifolia.(2)Un-der the current climatic conditions,the suitable area for C.equisetifolia was 35259 km2,with a northern boundary at 30.24°N.The optimal distribution area was 2951 km2,with a northern boundary at 28.69°N.(3)In the late 21st century,under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the area suitable for the distribution of C.equisetifolia is pro-jected to decrease by 26.1％and 20.2％,respectively,with the northern boundary shifting southward by approxi-mately 0.9° latitude.In these two scenarios,the optimal distribution area for C.equisetifolia is projected to increase by 239.8％and 213.5％,respectively,with the northern boundary shifting southward by approximately 3.4° lati-tude.关键词
木麻黄/潜在分布/未来气候情景/最大熵模型Key words
Casuarina equisetifolia/potential distribution/future climate scenario/Maxent model引用本文复制引用
胡洵瑀,黄瑞荣,韩鹏飞,刘旭川,黄希妍..南方沿海防护林主要树种木麻黄适生区分布特征[J].生态学杂志,2026,45(2):491-499,9.基金项目
国家林业和草原局"湿地监测与管理"项目(2022-Z003)资助. （2022-Z003）
