上海预防医学2026，Vol.38Issue(1)：12-18,7.DOI:10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2026.250255
中老年人群内在能力变动轨迹与脑卒中发生率的关联
Association between trajectories of intrinsic capacity and incidence of stroke among middle-aged and elderly adults
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To investigate the association between dynamic trajectories of intrinsic capacity(IC)and the risk of incident stroke among Chinese adults aged 45 years and older,and to provide a novel perspective for early warning of stroke.[Methods]A total of 8 321 participants with IC repeat measurement data from the 2011‒2016 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)were included.IC was constructed by five dimension indicators:cognition,movement,vitality,sensory,and psychological.A group-based trajectory model was adopted to identify the change trajectory of IC.The primary outcome was the stroke events that occurred from 2017 to 2020.The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to test the association between IC trajectory and stroke risk.[Results]Three IC trajectories were identified,labeled as the low-stable,medium-stable,and high-stable IC trajectory groups,accounting for 41.70%,41.63%,and 16.67%of the research population,respectively.Compared with participants in the low-stable IC trajectory group,those in the medium-stable and high-stable groups had a reduced risk of stroke,with multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of 0.823(95%CI:0.689‒0.984)and 0.632(95%CI:0.471‒0.848),respectively.[Conclusion]The longitudinal trajectories of IC are significantly negatively correlated with the incidence of stroke.IC may serve as a reliable indicator for assessing stroke risk.关键词
中老年人/内在能力/脑卒中/基于组的轨迹模型Key words
middle-aged and elderly adult/intrinsic capacity/stroke/group-based trajectory modeling分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
旷梦玲,陈杭琦,白汪洋,何倩,吴骋,贺佳..中老年人群内在能力变动轨迹与脑卒中发生率的关联[J].上海预防医学,2026,38(1):12-18,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(82373687,82073671) （82373687,82073671）
