水科学进展2026，Vol.37Issue(2)：286-297,12.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2026.02.008
无资料库区入库洪水预报的多尺度嵌套TOKASIDE模型
Reservoir inflow flood forecasting of TOKASIDE model based on spatially multi-scale nested simulation
摘要
Abstract
Flood forecasting in ungauged reservoirs downstream of inflow control stations is hindered by scale effects and numerical inaccuracies arising from large disparities between main stem and tributary drainage areas.To address these issues,a spatial multi-scale nested simulation method based on the TOpographic Kinematic Approximation and Saturation-Infiltration Double Excess(TOKASIDE)model was developed and verified in the Yuecheng Reservoir area.Scale effects in gauged basin were analyzed and cross-scale parameter transformation relationships derived from fractal and geomorphic theories were established,forming a spatial multiscale-nested TOKASIDE framework.The results show that:① In terms of scale effects,simulated discharge varies systematically with resolution,decreasing in the 100-500 m range and increasing in the 600-2 000 m range.② Applying scale transformations to the surface and channel roughness reduce systematic bias across resolutions.③ The application to the Yuecheng Reservoir area indicates that,for two historical flood events,the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(ENS)values of the multiscale scheme are both greater than 0.7,and the peak discharge error is reduced by approximately 27%compared with single-resolution(1 000 m)simulation.The proposed method resolves parameterization and scale effects in ungauged reservoir reaches,significantly improving accuracy and reliability,while providing technical support for reservoir flood-control operations.关键词
洪水预报/无资料库区/入库洪水/TOKASIDE模型/尺度效应/多尺度嵌套模拟Key words
flood forecasting/ungauged reservoir/reservoir inflow flood/TOKASIDE model/scale effects/spatially multi-scale nested simulation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
盛奕华,李致家,刘志雨,徐宁..无资料库区入库洪水预报的多尺度嵌套TOKASIDE模型[J].水科学进展,2026,37(2):286-297,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52079035) （52079035）
江苏省水利科学研究院自主科研经费专项资金项目(2024z012) The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52079035)and the Independent Research Project of Jiangsu Hydraulic Research Institute,China(No.2024z012). （2024z012）
