摘要
Abstract
In the context of escalating U.S.-India tariff disputes and the restructuring of global supply chains,India faces mounting pressure to balance its external economic relations,which has further magnified the inherent contradictions in its economic policy toward China.Since 2014,the Modi government's China policy has undergone three phases:In his first term,Modi promoted China-India cooperation,leveraging Chinese capital and technology to support development.The second term,influenced by border frictions and nationalism,marked a sharp turn toward economic disengagement and accelerated industrial substitution.In the third term,constrained by reality,India has sought a new balance between"economic self-reliance"and"development needs,"adopting a strategy of managed competition toward China.Behind these phased policy adjustments lie concentrated manifestations of inherent policy contradictions.India is caught in a paradox:India pursues strategic supply-chain substitution while remaining highly dependent on Chinese intermediate inputs;in terms of policy instruments,it combines selective cooperation to attract Chinese capital and technology with institutionalized restrictions,alongside institutional exclusion to guard against China's influence;in terms of orientation,it applies a double standard by tightening"risk-management"toward China while promoting"openness and integration"with the United States and Europe.At root lies an elite-level cognitive split over China's economic impact.First,India hesitates between two competing national visions on its industrialization path:"embedded development"and"autonomous substitution."Second,the decision-making process is shaped by the domestic bureaucratic and interest-group struggle between"openness"and"protectionism."Third,at the political level,it is strongly influenced by the"securitization of the economy"narrative driven by Hindu nationalist ideology.It is this deep-seated cognitive conflict that leaves India's economic policy toward China constantly swinging between confrontation and cooperation,with its contradictory nature set to persist over the long term.关键词
中印经济关系/莫迪政府/"印度制造"/印度产业政策/印美关税分歧Key words
China-India economic relations/Modi administration/made in India/industrial policy/U.S.-India tariff disputes分类
社会科学
