人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(2)：15-23,9.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.02.003
基于主客观融合赋权的防洪调度风险效益决策评价
Risk-benefit decision evaluation on flood control operations based on subjective-objective integrated weighting
摘要
Abstract
To address the decision-making challenges in flood control scheduling for complex water projects,an integrated sub-jective-objective weighting risk-benefit evaluation and decision-making model based on AHP-CRITIC-TOPSIS was pro-posed.Taking the flood control scheduling simulation for the Changjiang River Basin from July 28 to August 2,1954,as a case study,a risk-benefit index system for flood control scheduling was constructed.The AHP-CRITIC method was used to collabo-ratively optimize index weights in an"experience-oriented and data-driven"manner,and the TOPSIS method was applied to e-valuate the effectiveness of joint flood control scheduling schemes for water projects.The results show that there is trade-offs a-mong risk-benefit indicators,with the affected population indicator receiving the highest weight of 0.2513.The combined weigh-ting approach effectively integrates expert decision preferences and empirical experience.Compared with Scheme 1,the recommen-ded optimal Scheme 3 reduces the downstream excess flood volume by 5 billion cubic meters,decreases the affected population by 1.208 million people,and reduces inundation losses by 23.2 billion yuan,at the cost of lowering flood control capacity by 7.63 billion cubic meters.The findings can provide a reference for evaluating regulation effectiveness and optimizing joint flood control scheduling schemes for complex water engineering projects.关键词
防洪调度/风险效益/多属性决策/主客观融合赋权/TOPSISKey words
flood control operation/risk and benefit/multi-attribute decision making/subjective and objective integrated weighting/TOPSIS分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
巴欢欢,李肖男,舒卫民,傅巧萍,邹强,荆平飞..基于主客观融合赋权的防洪调度风险效益决策评价[J].人民长江,2026,57(2):15-23,9.基金项目
中国长江电力股份有限公司项目(Z242302001) （Z242302001）
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200302) （2021YFC3200302）
湖北省/武汉市科技计划项目(2021WHYCQN-04) （2021WHYCQN-04）
