人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(2)：37-43,64,8.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.02.005
金沙江下游短中期水文气象预报产品可用性分析
Assessing operational usability of short-and medium-range hydro-meteorological forecast products in lower Jinsha River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The evaluation of hydro-meteorological forecast products currently relies heavily on qualitative comparison of per-formance,with a notable lack of quantitative assessment regarding their practical usability.Furthermore,existing evaluation indices often fail to incorporate the inherent uncertainty in forecasts across different lead times.Consequently,the development of a ro-bust,quantifiable availability evaluation indicator has become an urgent priority.In this study,we proposed a forecast product usa-bility evaluation index,integrating conventional accuracy indices—including the Threat Score(TS),mean absolute relative error(MARE),and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)—while explicitly taking account of forecast uncertainty across varying lead times.Taking the lower Jinsha River Basin as a case study,we applied this index to analyze the accuracy and assess the usa-bility of several hydro-meteorological forecast products.The results indicate the following usability ranking:cumulative inflow forecast products for the Wudongde Reservoir>inflow forecast products>areal precipitation forecast products for the lower Jin-sha River Basin>flood process forecast products for the Wudongde Reservoir.Specifically,for the 1～5 d lead times,areal pre-cipitation forecast products for the lower Jinsha River Basin,inflow forecast products,cumulative inflow forecast products,and flood process forecast products for the 1～2 d lead times for the Wudongde Reservoir exhibit high usability(usability index≥0.7).For the 3 d lead time,flood process forecast products demonstrate moderate usability(usability index≥0.6).These findings provide a technical foundation to support the joint operation and scheduling of reservoir groups in the lower Jinsha River Basin.关键词
水文气象预报/预报精度评价/预报产品可用性/评价指标/乌东德水库/金沙江下游Key words
hydro-meteorological forecast/evaluation of forecast accuracy/forecast product availability/evaluation index/Wudongde Reservoir/lower Jinsha River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
冯志州,王正华,马艺铭,许银山,毛玉鑫,张艳..金沙江下游短中期水文气象预报产品可用性分析[J].人民长江,2026,57(2):37-43,64,8.基金项目
中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(Z242302027) （Z242302027）
国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2340213) （U2340213）
