人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(2)：44-53,10.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.02.006
金沙江下游至三峡水库以上区域降雨演变规律分析
Analysis on precipitation evolution in region from lower Jinsha River to upper Three Gorges Reservoir
摘要
Abstract
Revealing the interdecadal variation patterns of rainfall and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of rainstorms in the key region from the lower reaches of the Jinsha River to the upper section of the Three Gorges Reservoir is of great signifi-cance for water resource management in the upper Changjiang River and the optimal operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir.U-sing regression analysis,Mann-Kendall tests,power spectrum analysis,and composite analysis,we quantitatively analyze rainfall evolution patterns for the annual period,main flood season,reservoir impoundment period,and key drawdown period within three major sub-regions:the Yalong River Basin,the lower Jinsha River,and the mainstream of the upper Changjiang River.The re-sults indicated that the Yalong River Basin exhibited a significant increasing trend in annual and drawdown-period precipitation,while the lower Jinsha River and mainstream of the upper Changjiang River showed decreasing trends across all periods.Periodici-ty analysis revealed a 5-year cycle during the flood season and a 13-year cycle during the impoundment period in the Yalong River Basin.A 3-year cycle was identified during the impoundment period in the lower Jinsha River,and 3-year cycles were found during the flood and drawdown periods in the mainstream of the upper Changjiang River.Composite analysis of rainstorms revealed such a typical pattern:precipitation typically initiates as moderate rain in the northern Jialing and Minjiang basins on the first day,intensifies into heavy rain while shifting southeastward to the mainstream,then continues eastward on the following day,weakening to moderate rain in the Three Gorges area before finally exiting the region.These findings provide crucial support for coordinated flood control and drought relief operations of cascade reservoirs and for adaptation to climate change.关键词
降雨演变规律/趋势分析/功率谱分析/合成分析/三峡水库/金沙江下游Key words
precipitation evolution/trend analysis/power spectrum analysis/composite analysis/Three Gorges Reservoir/lower Jinsha River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
马艺铭,邱辉,王祥,张俊,王方方,冯志州..金沙江下游至三峡水库以上区域降雨演变规律分析[J].人民长江,2026,57(2):44-53,10.基金项目
中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(Z242302027) （Z242302027）
国家自然科学基金项目"长江流域'河-库系统'产汇流机制及洪水智能预报模型"(U2340213) （U2340213）
