人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(2)：54-64,11.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.02.007
中国大河入海径流量变化过程及对ENSO和EASM的响应
Variation process of runoff of major Chinese rivers into sea and their response to ENSO and EASM
摘要
Abstract
El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a crucial signal of global interannual climate change,while the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)is the dominant factor causing abnormal summer precipitation in China.Both are important climatic phenomena affecting hydrological processes on global and regional scales.To reveal the variation characteristics of river runoff into the sea and its response to ENSO and EASM,we analyzed the trends and periodic variations of runoff from three representative major rivers in China(the Yellow River,Changjiang River,and Pearl River)based on data from their estuarine hydrological sta-tions(1960～2023).Methods including the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Morlet wavelet analysis were employed for this purpose,and the response of runoff changes to ENSO and EASM was explored.The results indicated that:① The runoff into the sea of the Yellow River,Changjiang River,and Pearl River showed a significant decreasing trend,an insignificant increasing trend,and an insignificant decreasing trend,respectively.The abrupt change years occurred in 1985 for the Yellow River;1988 and 2003 for the Changjiang River;and 1983,1992,and 2002 for the Pearl River.②All three rivers exhibited interannual period-ic variations in runoff into the sea on a time scale of 2～8 years,with the response to ENSO becoming more significant from north to south.However,the response of runoff into the sea to ENSO has been insignificant since the 21st century.③The runoff into the sea of the Yellow River and Changjiang River had interannual periodic variations with EASM on a time scale of 2～6 years,while the Pearl River showed no significant resonant period with EASM.Additionally,there were no significant resonant periods on a long-term(interdecadal)scale between the runoff into the sea of the three rivers and EASM.The research findings can provide a reference for watershed water resources management,drought and flood prevention,and regional hydrological process research.关键词
入海径流量/趋势变化/ENSO/EASM/小波分析/黄河/长江/珠江Key words
runoff into the sea/trend variation/ENSO/EASM/wavelet analysis/Yellow River/Changjiang River/Pearl River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
庄俊,彭俊,吴若希,苏琪懿..中国大河入海径流量变化过程及对ENSO和EASM的响应[J].人民长江,2026,57(2):54-64,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42307055) （42307055）
安徽省高等学校科研计划项目(2022AH040155) （2022AH040155）
安徽省省级传统专业改造提升项目(2023zygzts073) （2023zygzts073）
滁州学院"劳动教育示范教学团队"项目(2022ldtd03) （2022ldtd03）
滁州学院科研启动经费项目(zrjz2025016) （zrjz2025016）
