人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(2)：74-79,6.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.02.009
重庆市农业生产干旱风险预测
Drought risk prediction for agricultural production in Chongqing City
摘要
Abstract
Under the context of global climate warming,extreme drought events pose serious threats to agricultural production,making research on the impact of droughts on agriculture highly significant for ensuring regional food security and water resource management.Taking Chongqing City as the study area,this research utilized meteorological department forecast data to establish water balance supply-demand relationship indicators,conducting drought assessment and prediction for the entire municipality's agricultural water shortage and key crop water requirements.The results indicate that from late August to early September,some districts and counties are expected to experience periodic drought-related water shortages for sweet potatoes and vegetable culti-vation,lasting approximately seven days.From November to December,with reducing rainfalls,the main urban areas and parts of northeastern Chongqing City may face relatively widespread water shortages for rapeseed cultivation,though the overall water short-age is expected to be limited,with minimal impact on rapeseed growth.Combined analysis of rainfall trends and water storage pro-ject operations suggests that a drought event of intensity comparable to that of 2022 is unlikely to occur in 2024.Verification shows that this prediction aligns with the actual drought conditions in 2024.The study provides scientific support for optimizing agricul-tural production layout,formulating drought response strategies,and coordinating water resource management in Chongqing City.关键词
干旱预测/农业生产/水量平衡/供需关系/水资源管理/重庆市Key words
drought prediction/agricultural production/water balance/supply-demand relationship/water resource manage-ment/Chongqing City分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨洪波,李文浩,熊玉江..重庆市农业生产干旱风险预测[J].人民长江,2026,57(2):74-79,6.基金项目
重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项重点项目(CSTB2022TIAD-KPX0198) （CSTB2022TIAD-KPX0198）
