太原理工大学学报2026，Vol.57Issue(2)：229-242,14.DOI:10.16355/j.tyut.1007-9432.20240467
中国省域可再生能源电力配额分配研究
Renewable Energy Power Quota Allocation among China's Provincial Regions
摘要
Abstract
[Purposes]Faced with the urgent demands of the"dual carbon"goals,the electricity industry,as the largest source of carbon emissions in China,is under significant pressure to undergo a low-carbon energy transition.To address this issue,China initiated the implementation of renewable energy electricity quotas in 2018.However,owing to disparities in economic development,industrial structure,and resource endowment among provinces,scientific and reasonable quota allocation is cru-cial.[Methods]Accordingly,in this paper,a renewable energy power quota allocation mechanism was proposed.First,an autoregressive integrated moving average model was employed to forecast the future electricity generation data of each province.Subsequently,the data envelopment analysis method was applied to maximize the overall proportion of renewable energy electricity generation in China,thereby exploring feasible quota allocation strategies.[Results]The results of the empirical study show that with optimal quota allocation,the proportion of renewable energy electricity genera-tion in China could increase from 30.2%to 32%in 2025,while maintaining the total electricity gener-ation level.[Conclusions]In conclusion,the proposed quota allocation method in this study contrib-utes to guiding the implementation of China's renewable energy electricity quota system,thereby sup-porting the achievement of the"dual carbon"goals.关键词
可再生能源/电力配额/数据包络分析/差分自回归移动平均模型/资源配置Key words
renewable energy/electricity quotas/data envelopment analysis(DEA)/autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)/resource allocation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
吴兴旺,谢一鸣,吴杰,常圣卿,冯晨鹏..中国省域可再生能源电力配额分配研究[J].太原理工大学学报,2026,57(2):229-242,14.基金项目
国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目资助(5500-202220136A-1-1-ZN) （5500-202220136A-1-1-ZN）
