中国人口·资源与环境2026，Vol.36Issue(1)：151-160,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250609
"双碳"目标下高标准农田建设的农业碳减排效应
Agricultural carbon emission reduction effect of high‑standard farmland construction under the"dual carbon"goals
摘要
Abstract
Under the"dual carbon"goals,carbon sequestration and emission reduction in agricultural systems have become pivotal to achieving green development.High-standard farmland construction is a powerful means of enhancing China's national food security and an effective way to reduce agricultural carbon emissions.Based on panel data of agricultural carbon emissions and high-standard farm‐land construction in 13 prefecture-level cities(autonomous prefecture)and 3 county-level cities under provincial jurisdiction in Hubei Province(hereinafter referred to as the"16 prefecture-level cities")from 2014 to 2022,this study adopted a two-way fixed effects model to explore the agricultural carbon emission reduction effect of high-standard farmland construction and its underlying mechanisms.The results showed that:① The 16 prefecture-level cities of Hubei Province achieved significant results in agricultural carbon emission re‐duction,with agricultural carbon emissions having a downward trend and the reduction rate of some regions reaching 20%.② Bench‐mark regression results showed that the inhibitory effect of high-standard farmland construction on agricultural carbon emissions was significant at the 1%level,indicating that it effectively reduced agricultural carbon emissions.After replacing the explanatory vari‐ables,applying two-sided winsorization,conducting a one-period lag of analysis,and adding control variables,the carbon emission re‐duction effect of high-standard farmland construction remained significant.③ Mediation effect analysis revealed that high-standard farmland construction had a significant negative impact on agricultural inputs and significantly promoted the development of agricultur‐al socialization services.Meanwhile,the incremental effect of agricultural inputs on agricultural carbon emissions was significant at the 1%level,and the decremental effect of agricultural socialized services on agricultural carbon emissions was also significant at the 5%level.This indicated that reducing agricultural inputs and promoting the sustainable development of agricultural socialized services were the underlying mechanisms by which high-standard farmland construction suppressed agricultural carbon emissions.④ Heteroge‐neity analysis found that the carbon emission reduction effect of high-standard farmland construction was significant in hilly areas but not in plain areas.In addition,the larger the scale of high-standard farmland construction,the more pronounced its agricultural carbon emission reduction effect.Based on these findings,this study recommends establishing a long-term mechanism for high-standard farm‐land construction;enhancing the technical support system of agricultural socialized services;implementing regionally differentiated high-standard farmland construction strategies;and formulating financial subsidy policies for agricultural carbon emission reduction to sustain agricultural carbon emission cuts.关键词
高标准农田建设/农业碳排放/双向固定效应模型/中介效应模型Key words
high‐standard farmland construction/agricultural carbon emission/two‐way fixed effects model/mediation effect model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李涵伟,胡申渝,张雄.."双碳"目标下高标准农田建设的农业碳减排效应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2026,36(1):151-160,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金一般项目"农地非农化配置效率测度及效率改进差别化配置策略研究"(批准号:71403300) （批准号:71403300）
中南民族大学中央专项资金资助项目"民族地区数字高标准农田建设的支持政策体系研究"(批准号:CSZ24014). （批准号:CSZ24014）
