中国农业气象2026，Vol.47Issue(3)：390-401,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2026.03.007
1994-2023年新疆棉花花铃期高温热害风险区划
Risk Zoning of High Temperature Disaster during Flowering and Boll Setting Stage of Cotton in Xinjiang from 1994 to 2023
摘要
Abstract
Based on daily observational data from 106 national baseline weather stations in Xinjiang during July to August of the period 1994 to 2023,the risk index of high temperature disaster causing factors in the region was analyzed,combining with crop exposure index and disaster prevention capacity,to construct a high temperature disaster risk assessment model.Subsequently,a comprehensive risk zoning of high temperature disaster was developed to identify high risk areas and provide a reference for regional agricultural disaster prevention and control.The results showed that high temperature processes during the cotton flowering and boll setting phases in Xinjiang from 1994 to 2023 exhibited distinct regional difference,the risk of high temperature disaster causing factors generally exhibited a spatial pattern of being lower in high altitude areas while higher in basins and plains.High exposure areas mainly concentrated in major cotton-growing regions including Bortala prefecture,Kuitun,Korla,Aksu and parts of Kashger.Most cotton areas in Xinjiang had low disaster prevention capability,while stronger capabilities existed in highly urbanized central cities.High risk areas for comprehensive high temperature disaster were mainly distributed across central Bortala,south and central Tacheng,Turpan,Hami and key cotton-growing areas in southern Xinjiang.For these high risk regions,scientific prevention measures should be applied to reduce high temperature disaster losses and ensure sustainable cotton production development in Xinjiang.关键词
棉花/花铃期/高温热害风险/风险评估模型Key words
Cotton/Flowering and boll setting stage/High temperature disaster/Risk assessment model引用本文复制引用
火勋国,赵志刚,唐雪莲,王森,张山清,王强,郭燕云,孙帅,王雪姣,张立祯..1994-2023年新疆棉花花铃期高温热害风险区划[J].中国农业气象,2026,47(3):390-401,12.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目(2022B02001-1) （2022B02001-1）
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2022D01A295) （2022D01A295）
第六师五家渠市科技计划项目(2527) （2527）
新疆维吾尔自治区"天山英才""三农"骨干人才项目(2023SNGGNT078) （2023SNGGNT078）
