中国农村水利水电Issue(3)：13-20,8.DOI:10.12396/znsd.2500506
基于MIKE FLOOD模型的杭州典型城区城市洪涝模拟及风险分析
Urban Flood Simulation and Risk Analysis of Typical Urban Areas in Hangzhou Based on the MIKE FLOOD Model
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of accelerating climate change and urbanization,extreme weather events are occurring with increasing frequency,and urban flooding issues are becoming increasingly severe.Simulating flood processes under various rainfall scenarios and analyzing the spatial distribution and evolution of flood risks have become key research focuses.Taking a typical area in Qiantang District,Hangzhou City as an example,this study employs the Mike Flood platform to couple the Mike Urban,Mike 11,and Mike 21 models,and validates the models using actual rainfall and water accumulation data.Six different rainfall scenarios with varying recurrence intervals were set based on the rainfall characteristics of the study area.Flood processes under each rainfall scenario were simulated,and potential flooding risks were analyzed from three processes:node overflow,pipeline convergence,and surface flooding.Flooding risk zones were delineated using two indicators:water depth and duration of flooding.The results indicate that the coupled model simulation results have an average error of 5.41%compared to measured values,accurately simulating real flooding conditions and demonstrating high applicability.Under high recurrence period rainfall scenarios,certain areas of the study region face severe risks of node overflow,pipeline pressure operation,and flood inundation.The drainage pipeline design standards in the study region are insufficient to cope with extreme rainfall scenarios.As the recurrence period increases,the number of overflow nodes,pipeline filling rate,maximum flood depth,and flood risk areas at all levels in the study area all show an increasing trend.Among these,roads and their adjacent areas,low-lying areas,multi-lane intersections,and areas near drainage outlets are high-risk zones,necessitating targeted disaster prevention measures.These findings can provide references for improving urban flood risk management work.关键词
城市洪涝/MIKE FLOOD模型/耦合模型/风险分析Key words
urban flood/MIKE FLOOD model/coupling model/risk analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张磊磊,刘艳丽,鲁芳,徐楠涛,宋晓猛..基于MIKE FLOOD模型的杭州典型城区城市洪涝模拟及风险分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2026,(3):13-20,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52325902,52361145889). （52325902,52361145889）
