中国沼气2026，Vol.44Issue(1)：40-47,8.DOI:10.20022/j.cnki.1000-1166.2026010040
玉米秸秆资源预测及其用于村镇供热的潜力分析
Corn Stover Resource Prediction and Analysis of Its Potential for Village Heating
摘要
Abstract
To accurately predict the amount of corn stover resources in Yulin City over the next decade and evaluate its heating potential,the text first uses the total corn production and sowing area of various counties in Yulin City,Shaanxi Province from 2012-2023 as the original data series to establish a multivariate linear regression prediction model with dum-my variables.It predicts the future ten years' corn production for this region under three scenario assumptions.Next,it cal-culates and evaluates the amount of corn straw resources and its biomass heating potential in the region using the grass-to-grain ratio method and related coefficients.Finally,it calculates the annual total heat consumption of towns and villages in Yulin City using the area heat index method and estimates the total energy savings for heating using corn straw.The results show that the multivariate linear regression prediction model with dummy variables can predict the medium-to long-term corn production in this region.The predicted results indicate that the corn production and corn straw resource quantity in Yulin City will increase annually from 2024-2033.Under the three scenario assumptions,the theoretical corn straw re-source quantity increases from 2.2788～2.2981 million tons to 2.3234～2.5443 million tons,which can replace standard coal quantities from 526,800～531,300 tons of standard coal to 537100～588200 tons of standard coal,providing an av-erage annual heat supply of 1.56 × 107～1.64 × 107 GJ.The total annual heat consumption of various counties in Yulin City is 4.15 × 107 GJ,and the total coal consumption is 1.4168 million tons of standard coal.According to the predicted corn straw resource data,after 2030,using corn straw for heating in winter in towns and villages of various counties in Yu-lin City will meet about one-quarter of the winter heating energy needs of the entire Yulin region,significantly saving coal consumption,with considerable heating potential.关键词
玉米秸秆/资源预测/村镇/供热潜力Key words
corn straw/resource prediction/towns and villages/heating potential分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
齐亚茹,闫翻辽,任美桃,杜娟,王建春..玉米秸秆资源预测及其用于村镇供热的潜力分析[J].中国沼气,2026,44(1):40-47,8.基金项目
陕北榆林地区村镇生物质能发展预测及其在供热中的高效应用研究(23JK0749) （23JK0749）
基于陕北油田污染土壤导致的河流地表水环境非点源污染研究(2023-JC-QN-0333). （2023-JC-QN-0333）
