摘要
Abstract
The forecast uncertainty between adjacent reservoirs has a certain correlation in the spatial dimension.Ignoring this uncertainty may lead to deviations in the flood risk calculation of reservoir groups,thereby failing to tap the maximum potential of joint scheduling of reservoir groups.To address the above issues,this paper uses t-Copula functions to quantify the correlation between forecast uncertainties among reservoir groups and analyzes the impact of this correlation on flood risks for reservoir groups.The results show that considering the correlation between forecast uncertainties of reservoirs with hydraulic connections between adjacent basins reduces the forecast uncertainty of reservoir groups.Ignoring this uncertainty can lead to an overestimation of flood risks,which may cause decision-makers to make overly conservative decisions.关键词
Copula函数/预报不确定性/时空关联/水库调度/防洪风险Key words
copula function/forecast uncertainty/temporal and spatial correlation/reservoir operation/flood risk分类
天文与地球科学
