Abstract
Objective The global aging population is growing rapidly,and gallbladder and biliary diseases have been a common issue affecting the elderly.This study will use data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 to explore the overall burden,trends,and predictions of gallbladder and biliary diseases in the elderly(over 65 years)worldwide.Methods We analyzed data from the GBD 2021 study,focusing on prevalence,incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)in 204 countries and regions.The data analysis included calculating relative changes,annual percentage change(APC),and estimated annual percentage change(EAPC),both based on frontier analysis,using an ARIMA model and ES model to predict trends until 2050.Results From 1990 to 2021,the number of elderly people with gallbladder and biliary diseases increased significantly:incidence cases rose from 7 835 812 to 16 647 254,prevalence cases from 40 413 246 to 85 146 547,deaths from 54 528 to 105 358,and DALYs from 1 650 007 to 3 133 699,all more than doubled.However,the estimated age-standardized rate indicators showed a slight decline over 30 years(incidence rate per 100 000 population decreased from 4 824.38 to 4 287.53,EAPC −0.33(95%CI −0.39 to −0.28);prevalence rate decreased from 24 128.97 to 21 131.60,EAPC −0.41(95%CI −0.45 to −0.36);mortality rate decreased from 29.49 to 22.98,EAPC −0.62(95%CI −0.77 to −0.47);DALYs rate decreased from 962.02 to 754.66,EAPC −0.73(95%CI −0.80 to −0.65).The incidence was higher among females,and the incidence rate,DALYs,and mortality increased with age.Among the five Socio-Demographic Index(SDI)areas,in 2021,the prevalence,incidence,mortality,and DALYs of elderly gallbladder and biliary diseases in high SDI areas were estimated to be 24 691.83,5 852.12,26.45 and 825.22 cases per 100 000 population respectively.High-middle SDI areas had the highest incidence and DALYs,which were correlated with the SDI index.Regarding risk factors,there was a high correlation with smoking and high bady mass index(BMI),and the BMI was the main risk factor.Through ES and ARIMA predictions,we found that the rate of incidence,prevalence,mortality,and DALYs of biliary diseases would gradually increase.Conclusion In summary,the global burden of OGBD has significantly increased over the past 32 years,especially in high SDI areas,and indicators have worsened with age.The findings highlight the need to focus on OGBD,control risk factors,and strengthen prevention.关键词
全球疾病负担/老年人/胆囊疾病/胆道疾病Key words
global burden/elderly/gallbladder diseases/biliary diseases分类
医药卫生
