广东医学2026，Vol.47Issue(2)：172-178,7.DOI:10.13820/j.cnki.gdyx.20253083
甲状腺癌患者术后新发抑郁的影响因素及风险列线图预测模型的构建
Factors associated with postoperative new-onset depression in patients with thyroid cancer and construction of a risk nomogram prediction model
摘要
Abstract
Objective To identify factors associated with postoperative new-onset depression in patients with thyroid cancer and to develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model.Methods A total of 287 patients with thyroid cancer treated between February 2023 and December 2024 were enrolled.According to the presence of new-onset depres-sion after surgery,patients were divided into a non-depression group(ni=216)and a new-onset depression group(n=71).Demographic,clinical,and psychosocial data were collected.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of postoperative new-onset depression,and a nomogram prediction model was estab-lished.Model performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve.Results Univariate analysis showed that postoperative changes in body image,monthly per capita household income,tumor recurrence risk,131I therapy,presence of other chronic diseases,family function,psychological resilience,and so-cial support were significantly associated with new-onset depression(all P＜0.05).Multivariate logistic regression anal-ysis identified monthly per capita household income(OR=0.994,95％CI:0.992-0.996),131I therapy(OR=3.479,95％CI:1.088-11.122),family function(OR=0.976,95％CI:0.953-0.999),psychological resilience(OR=0.836,95％CI:0.770-0.907),and social support(OR=0.858,95％CI:0.764-0.964)as independent predictors of postoperative new-onset depression(all P＜0.05).The nomogram model equation was:Log(P)=-0.006 × monthly per capita household income+1.247 × 131I therapy-0.024 × family function-0.179 × psychological resili-ence-0.153 × social support+40.392.The area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.842(95％CI:0.782-0.902).Internal validation using the bootstrap method demonstrated good calibration and discrimination.Conclusion Low monthly per capita household income,receipt of 131I therapy,poor family function,low psychological resilience,and low social support are significant risk factors for postoperative new-onset depression in patients with thyroid cancer.The nomogram based on these variables shows good predictive performance and may facilitate early identification and targeted psychological intervention.关键词
甲状腺癌/抑郁/列线图Key words
thyroid cancer/depression/nomogram分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
阮艳红,陈旦旦,倪蓓君,张晚秋..甲状腺癌患者术后新发抑郁的影响因素及风险列线图预测模型的构建[J].广东医学,2026,47(2):172-178,7.基金项目
安徽省卫生健康科研项目(AHWJ2024Ab0121),中国科学院合肥肿瘤医院管理学部软课题(GLXB202305) （AHWJ2024Ab0121）
