生态与农村环境学报2026，Vol.42Issue(3)：322-334,13.DOI:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2025.0332
滇中城市群植被生产力演变轨迹及其影响因素
Evolutionary Trajectories of Vegetation Productivity and Their Driving Factors in the Central Yunnan Urban Ag-glomeration
摘要
Abstract
As a key region in China's Western Development Strategy and a leading exemplar of ecological civilization con-struction,the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration(CYUA)is pivotal for regional sustainable development.Investigating the evolutionary trajectories of vegetation ecosystem productivity in CYUA is essential for improving regional ecological quality and landscape character,as well as supporting the development of a livable plateau urban agglomeration.Based on MOD13A3 Version VI normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)data,this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolu-tion of vegetation ecosystem productivity trajectories and their natural and socio-economic drivers in CYUA from 2000 to 2022 using a multi-model trajectory diagnosis framework and a spatial random forest model.The results indicate that:(1)During 2000-2022,vegetation ecosystem productivity trajectories in CYUA comprised 71.55％positive,6.67％neg-ative,and 21.78％non-significant trends.Linear trajectories dominated positive trends,whereas negative trajectories were most frequently characterized by abrupt declines.Overall,vegetation productivity exhibited an upward tendency,with large areas showing sustained and stable improvement,while abrupt shifts between positive and negative occurred frequent-ly across the region.(2)Positive trajectories were mainly distributed in the northern and southwestern regions,whereas negative trajectories clustered in east-central and south-central areas.At elevations of 1 000-3 000 m,negative trajectories predominated at lower elevations,while the proportion of positive trajectories increased with elevation.(3)Human activi-ties exerted stronger impacts than natural factors on vegetation productivity.Nighttime light intensity and population density were key anthropogenic drivers,whereas mean annual temperature,potential evapotranspiration,and total soil nitrogen were the dominant natural drivers.Land-use conversions from forestland,cropland,and grassland to construction land ten-ded to induce significant negative abrupt shifts in vegetation productivity.Interactive effects among temperature,precipita-tion,and potential evapotranspiration critically shaped productivity patterns.These findings provide a scientific basis and decision support for urban planning,ecological restoration,and environmental protection engineering in CYUA.关键词
多模型轨迹诊断法/滇中城市群/植被生产力/空间随机森林模型Key words
multi-model trajectory diagnosis method/Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration/vegetation productivity/spatial random forest model分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
金笛,张朋兴,周明刚..滇中城市群植被生产力演变轨迹及其影响因素[J].生态与农村环境学报,2026,42(3):322-334,13.基金项目
云南省气象局科研项目(YZ202322) （YZ202322）
