农业大数据学报2026，Vol.8Issue(1)：86-97,12.DOI:10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.000138
封关运作下海南本地农产品冲击的量化模拟与差异化策略研究
Quantitative Modeling and Differentiation Strategies of Shocks to Local Agricultural Products in Hainan under the Customs Closure Operation in Hainan
摘要
Abstract
Hainan will officially launch the closure of the island-wide FTTP on 18 December 2025,and the proportion of'zero-tariff'commodities will jump from 21%to 74%,which will have a strong impact on Hainan's local agricultural products market.To address this challenge,this study constructs a partial equilibrium model to quantitatively simulate the impact of customs closure on the local grain and fruit industries.The results show that after the closure,cereal market prices are expected to fall by 48.2%,local supply will decrease by 9.6%,and imports will surge by 5 times;fruit market prices will decrease by 11.2%,local supply will decrease by 3.4%,and imports will increase by 68.2%,suggesting that the closure of the border will form a'double squeeze'on local agricultural products through price transmission:on the one hand,it will inhibit local production,and on the other hand,it will intensify import substitution.In response to this impact,this study proposes differentiated industrial support strategies,including the implementation of a target price insurance system for the food industry to protect the bottom line of regional food security,the fruit industry to strengthen branding and industry chain extension to enhance market competitiveness,and suggests the establishment of an industry chain-wide big data monitoring platform to achieve precise risk prevention and control,to provide a theoretical basis and practical references for the agricultural response to the challenges of the closure of Hainan.关键词
海南自贸港/封关运作/产业韧性/对冲模型/热带农业/价值链重构Key words
Hainan free trade port/closing operations/industrial resilience/hedonic modeling/tropical agriculture/value chain reconstruction引用本文复制引用
李佳乐,潘浪浪,郝瑞龙,周忠实,张建华,刘海清,虞国平..封关运作下海南本地农产品冲击的量化模拟与差异化策略研究[J].农业大数据学报,2026,8(1):86-97,12.基金项目
海南省重点研发项目(ZDYF2024KJTPY018)、海南省自然科学基金(325MS155)、中国农业科学院国家南繁研究院南繁专项(CAAS、YBXM2448、YBXM2340、YBXM2409、YBXM2410、YBXM2430、YBXM2508、YBXM2509、YBXM2562)、国家农业科学数据中心项目(NASDC2025XM11)、中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(JBYW-AII-2025-05、Y2025YC90). （ZDYF2024KJTPY018）
