气候变化研究进展2026，Vol.22Issue(1)：1-13,13.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.149
极地冰盖临界点:机制解析、系统响应与模拟挑战
Polar ice sheet tipping points:mechanisms,system responses,and modeling challenges
摘要
Abstract
Tipping points in ice sheet systems have become a focal point in studying nonlinear dynamics within the coupled ice-climate system,presenting critical scientific challenges involving self-reinforcing feedbacks,critical thresholds,and irreversible responses.This review synthesizes current understanding of the fundamental mechanisms driving ice sheet tipping behavior,emphasizing how positive feedbacks can propel the system beyond stability thresholds,while negative feedbacks may buffer variability and maintain quasi-stable states.Focusing on the Greenland,West Antarctic,and East Antarctic ice sheets,we assess their distinct evolutionary trajectories,dynamic regimes,and responses to external forcing,highlighting the regulatory roles of bed topography,ice-ocean interactions,and the propagation of localized disturbances.Incorporating recent insights into system coupling and cascading tipping dynamics,we further examine the risk of compound tipping events and cross-system amplifications.Key sources of uncertainty in numerical modeling—ranging from poorly constrained boundary conditions to incomplete process representations—are identified systematically,along with strategies for their reduction.We conclude by outlining priority directions for enhancing observation-model integration and underscore the need for robust tipping point detection and early warning frameworks.This review aims to advance the theoretical basis and predictive capacity for assessing ice sheet stability and associated risks under future climate scenarios.关键词
冰盖临界点/不可逆性/系统耦合/南极冰盖/格陵兰冰盖Key words
Ice sheet tipping point/Irreversibility/System coupling/Antarctic ice sheet/Greenland ice sheet引用本文复制引用
王千禧,李腾,唐学远,张通,张子谦,丁明虎,程晓..极地冰盖临界点:机制解析、系统响应与模拟挑战[J].气候变化研究进展,2026,22(1):1-13,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2802504) （2021YFC2802504）
国家自然科学基金项目(42206249,42276257,42271133) （42206249,42276257,42271133）
南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)创新团队项目(311021008) （珠海）
南极中山雪冰和空间特殊环境与灾害国家野外科学观测研究站开放研究基金(ZSNORS-20242604) （ZSNORS-20242604）
