气候变化研究进展2026，Vol.22Issue(1)：14-27,中插1-中插8,22.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.178
《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》的再续补(2001-2024年)与特殊区域旱涝趋势
The supplement(2001-2024)to the atlas of drought and flood distribution in China over the past 500 years and the trend of drought and flood in special areas
摘要
Abstract
Since the 21 st century,the speed of global warming has been significantly accelerated,and the impact of climate warming on China is significant and complicated.Based on the previous research results,this paper supplements the atlas of drought and flood distribution in China over the past 500 years,and completes the national drought and flood grade series from 2001 to 2024 and the spatial distribution characteristics of the national drought and flood grades.In view of the fact that in the past historical series,the distribution of stations in the western region of China was sparse,resulting in the extremely uneven density of stations in the eastern and western regions,this study also supplements the drought and flood grade series of cities in the western region from 1961 to 2024.The application analysis of the supplementary sequence shows that it can accurately reflect the major drought and flood events in China since the 21st century,and provide more complete data support for studying the long-term evolution and periodic characteristics of drought and flood events in China under the background of climate change.By analyzing the changes of drought and flood grades in western China,it is clear that the phenomenon of"warm-wet transition in Northwest China"mainly occurs in the western part of Northwest China,which is dominated by Qinghai and Xinjiang and its conclusion is consistent with the mainstream opinion of current academic circles.By comparing and analyzing the changes of ancient and modern drought intensity in the water network area of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer project,it is determined that this area has reached the standard of extreme drought for 27 years in the past 555 years,including the Chongzhen Great Drought in the late Ming Dynasty,the Incredible Famine of Ding-Wu in the late Qing Dynasty,and the 1941-1942 Henan Drought.At the same time,since 1961,three years have been selected as extreme drought years,the intensity of which have surpassed the 1941-1942 Henan Drought,but they are not as high as the grade indices of the driest years during the Chongzhen Great Drought and the Incredible Famine of Ding-Wu.Therefore,through the comparison of drought and flood grades,the dialogue across time and space is realized,and the intensity of modern major drought events is examined from a historical perspective.关键词
中国/旱涝等级/气候变暖/特殊区域/重大旱涝事件/历史灾害资料Key words
China/Drought and flood grade/Climate warming/Special area/Major drought and flood events/Historical disaster data引用本文复制引用
李威,李潇潇,姚世博,张强,梁有叶,孔莉莎,赵琳,谢五三,张永宁..《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》的再续补(2001-2024年)与特殊区域旱涝趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2026,22(1):14-27,中插1-中插8,22.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题"多层级水网工程应对特大干旱能力评价"(2023YFC3006601) （2023YFC3006601）
