气候变化研究进展2026，Vol.22Issue(1)：57-69,13.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.161
基于CMIP6的珠江流域旱涝急转事件演变特征及社会经济暴露度预估
Evolution characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation events and socio-economic exposure estimation in the Pearl River basin,China
摘要
Abstract
Drought-flood abrupt alternation(DFAA),as an extreme compound event,exerts far greater impacts on natural and social systems than individual drought or flood events.Based on CMIP6 data,population data,and GDP data,this study projected the evolutionary trends of DFAA and changes in population and GDP exposure in the Pearl River basin from 2021 to 2100 under three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs).The results are as follows.The frequency of DFAA events exhibited a non-significant upward trend from 1962 to 2020.In the future,the frequency of flood-to-drought alternation is significantly higher than that of drought-to-flood alternation.The frequency of drought-to-flood alternation decreases with the increase in emissions,while that of flood-to-drought alternation is the highest under high-emission scenarios.Except for the long-term period(2061-2100)under SSP 1-2.6,both the frequency and intensity of drought-to-flood alternation show a decreasing trend compared to the baseline period.In the near-term period(2021-2060),the frequency of flood-to-drought alternation under the three SSPs is lower than that in the baseline period,while it rises in the long-term period.Under three SSPs,the population exposure to drought-to-flood alternation in the Pearl River basin presents a temporal trend of"differentiation in the near-term period and common increase in the long-term period",while GDP exposure shows an overall upward trend.Spatially,regions with increasing exposure for both population and GDP are mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region.The population exposure to flood-to-drought alternation decreases in the near-term period compared to the baseline period but increases in the long-term period.The GDP exposure to flood-to-drought alternation also follows a trend of"differentiation in the near-term period and common increase in the long-term period".Spatially,regions with increasing exposure for both population and GDP spread from the eastern part of the basin to the central and western parts.关键词
珠江流域/CMIP6/共享社会经济路径(SSP)/旱涝急转/暴露度Key words
Pearl River basin/CMIP6/Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)/Drought-flood abrupt alternation(DFAA)/Exposure引用本文复制引用
秦年秀,李雅姝,汪军能,龚馨怡,杨心怡,姜彤..基于CMIP6的珠江流域旱涝急转事件演变特征及社会经济暴露度预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2026,22(1):57-69,13.基金项目
广西重点研发计划项目(桂科AB22080060) （桂科AB22080060）
广西自然科学基金项目(2022GXNSFAA035611) （2022GXNSFAA035611）
