气候变化研究进展2026，Vol.22Issue(1)：101-109,9.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.046
我国海上风电发展情景及其对产业发展、区域电价影响分析
Analysis of the offshore wind power development in China and its impacts on industrial development and regional electricity prices
摘要
Abstract
By the end of 2024,China's offshore wind power has developed rapidly,accounting for more than half of the global new installed capacity.The rapid technological progress has led to a significant reduction in its power generation costs,playing a crucial role in China's energy transition towards carbon neutrality.Based on the latest technological advancements in offshore wind power,this paper analyzes the development scenarios of offshore wind power under the carbon neutrality energy transition path of the IPAC model group,further assesses its technological progress and resource potential,provides the future installed capacity and power generation of different types of offshore wind power,and analyzes its power generation cost trends.On this basis,it analyzes the impact of low-cost offshore wind power development on the cost of green hydrogen-based industries,demonstrating the possible product competitiveness for coastal regions in the national industrial layout pattern.At the same time,it also presents the impact of offshore wind power development on regional grid electricity prices.For example,in Fujian province,offshore wind power can reduce local electricity prices by 0.02 yuan/(kW·h)and 0.05 yuan/(kW·h)in 2040 and 2050,respectively,which will contribute to the local social and economic development.关键词
碳中和/能源转型/海上风电/产业布局/电价Key words
Carbon Neutrality/Energy transition/Off-shore wind power/Industry layout/Electricity price引用本文复制引用
邓步青,姜克隽,贺晨旻,向翩翩,叶荣,朱纹纹,邹艺超,焦钰捷..我国海上风电发展情景及其对产业发展、区域电价影响分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2026,22(1):101-109,9.基金项目
国网福建省电力有限公司科技项目"能源-经济-环境"多系统联动仿真决策技术研究(B3130N24000H) （B3130N24000H）
