气候变化研究进展2026，Vol.22Issue(1)：110-120,11.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.107
面向煤基能源产业气象服务需求的灾害预警阈值优化研究
Research on optimization of early warning thresholds for meteorological disasters in coal-based energy industry
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global warming,the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events poses severe challenges to the safe production and economic operation of energy industries,particularly coal-based industries.This study constructs a four-dimensional research framework of"hazard factor-process parameter-economic impact-service demand",collecting 413 survey questionnaires and conducting field visits to nine typical enterprises.Through quantitative analysis of the correlation between meteorological elements and production parameters,a threshold system for the impact of meteorological disasters on the Yulin coal-based energy industry was established.The main conclusions are as follows.The three dominant meteorological factors affecting the coal-based energy industry are temperature(29.0％),precipitation(24.4％),and wind speed(19.3％).The three major meteorological disasters are heavy precipitation(14.8％),low-temperature freezing(14.2％),and lightning(13.6％).By integrating process parameters and equipment status indicators from different coal-based industries,dynamic thresholds for temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,strong winds,and air pressure variation were proposed.A tiered early-warning mechanism was established,and emergency plans were optimized based on regional climate characteristics to enhance resilience against extreme weather.The synergistic amplification mechanism of compound meteorological disasters was elucidated.The combination of"low temperature-high humidity-calm wind"significantly increased haze pollution concentration compared to individual factors,while the"dry heat-strong wind"combination sharply elevated the risk index of explosion and fire.The threshold system established in this study,based on data from Yulin,has regional limitations.When extended to bases in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,and other regions,differences in precipitation distribution and wind speed characteristics must be carefully considered for determining critical threshold values.Although this threshold system possesses the capacity for dynamic evolution with technological advancements,climate change,and policy adjustments,future efforts should focus on establishing an update mechanism coupled with climate predictions to achieve proactive adaptive adjustments.关键词
煤基能源产业/极端天气/阈值分析/复合灾害/预警系统Key words
Coal-based energy industries/Extreme weather/Threshold analysis/Compound hazards/Early warning system引用本文复制引用
魏娜,任琦,孙娴,王旭红,杨晓春..面向煤基能源产业气象服务需求的灾害预警阈值优化研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2026,22(1):110-120,11.基金项目
榆林市科技计划项目(2024-CXY-176) （2024-CXY-176）
榆林市科协青年人才托举计划项目(20240677) （20240677）
